Mexico Politics

AMLO put in place by tortilla protestors

2007-01-31T15:39:00.000-08:00

For the past six months, AMLO has looked a lot like "Subcomandante" Marcos. No, Lopez Obrador did not take up smoking a pipe and wearing a mask, but after being rejected by the Mexican populace, AMLO ran around to existing local conficts and tried to pretend that he was leading them. When he was rejected by the courts, then by the polls, and then by the voters in his home state of Tabasco, he seemed to become more desperate.

A good example would be the Toluca outdoor market last fall. The municipal government has long tried to move the market in order to ease congestion. Most of the vendors represent marginalized microbusinesses. When Lopez Obrador first appeared at their demonstrations, there was some added excitement, but as things went on it became apparent that he was there to promote his cause, not theirs.

The poorer half of the Mexican populace has been focused on the proposed price hike of tortillas. This will become a textbook example of an economic Giffen Good.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good

Tortillas are such a staple in the diet of the poor, and still the cheapest commodity in that diet (even with the price increase), the increase will not decrease tortilla consumption, but only impoverish the poor even more so that they will become more dependent on tortillas, having to cut out other parts of their diet which were previously purchased as discretionary or "luxury" items. In short, the increased price of tortillas may actually increase the demand for tortillas.

In a recent street protest, AMLO was not allowed to speak. The local leaders of this genuine movement have figured out that the progressive cause in the republic cannot be held hostage to one man's delusions.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/01/31/america/LA-GEN-Mexico-Tortilla-March.php

another assassination

2007-01-05T10:50:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, January 4, just before 8 PM, there was an apparent political assassination here in Acapulco. The newspapers are calling this an execution style hit, on Montealban street, in the downtown district of Fraccionamiento Hornos Insurgentes.

Jose Jorge Bajos Valverde was a local legislator. He was a PANista (uncommon for Acapulco), chairman of the finance commitee, and brother of state director of communication Cesar Bajos Valverde.

Jose Jorge Bajos Valderde was heading for an interview with a local radio station. He had parked his Toyota Rave and was preparing to exit when he was hit by a single rifle shot to the head, possibly at close range. A security guard at the radio station had heard the shot, and approached to investigate. At this time the assailants opened up with more shots from high powered rifles and automatic pistols before exiting on the busy Avenida Cuauhtemoc.

Here is a link to one local newspaper story.

http://www.suracapulco.com.mx/principal1.php

U.S. vs. Mexico elections in 2006

2006-12-30T11:24:00.000-08:00

I apologize for being away for so long from this blog. My health has not been good, and I have been teaching in the U.S. This gave me a chance to observe first hand the November "midterm" elections in the country of my birth. I was pleased by both the process and the results.

Regarding the results, it is most apt to say that the Democrats did not win, the Republicans lost. In their dozen years in charge of the national congress, they became a perfect example of HOW NOT to behave in office. They forgot their initial agenda, the so-called "Contract with America" and behaved like career politicians. They were more concerned with the perquisites of office and soliticing funds for the next campaign. I see this corruption as the main issue, not the war in Iraq (to which the Democrats failed to provide a clear, let alone compelling, alternative strategy). As such, the Democrats have neither mandate or agenda (except, perhaps, to clean up the capitol).

Regarding the process, many elections were extremely close, being decided by a few hundred or a few thousand votes. Yet, there were no unreasonable calls for endless recounts, no obstructive demonstrations, no alternative candidates swearing themselves in to a fictious office. The Republicans lost, admitted it, and stepped down.

I was most pleased by the powers of discernment of the northamerican voters. In a state as blue as California Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected (at the same time that Democratic Senator Diane Feinstein won overwhelmingly).

In the year 2006, voters on both sides of the border showed no blind party allegiance, but a tendency to reward honesty and competence rather than rhetoric. May that continue.

May the defeated parties, the Republican and the PRD, be cleansed of self-annointed saviors who seek only their own self-promotion, so that these parties may be loyal oppositions in their positions of minority, and worthy opponents in the next cycle of election.

May the victorious parties, the U.S. Democrats and the Mexican PAN, seek a bipartisan course leading to reforms of corruption. Congratulations to Calderon and Pelosi, but also a warning. You won because the voters rejected your opposition, and if you reject the reforms on which you ran, the voters will reject your party in the next cycle of elections.

Los Angeles Times weighs in

2006-10-21T14:16:00.000-07:00

The Los Angeles Times, never a friend to right wing causes, has published an editorial which should sting AMLO as much as Tabasco's voters did last Sunday.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-ed-tabasco18oct18,0,5106147.story?coll=la-opinion-leftrail

http://digbig.com/4nknb

"Voters in the southeast state, a stronghold of Lopez Obrador's leftist Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, have delivered the following message to the former presidential candidate: Get over yourself. By a 10-point margin, they elected Andres Granier, the candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI. This after Lopez Obrador spent three weeks campaigning alongside his party's candidate, Cesar Raul Ojeda. Before Lopez Obrador's meltdown last summer, Ojeda had been leading in the polls."

"Ojeda adhered to his political godfather, Lopez Obrador, signing off on his ludicrous claim that the national election was stolen."

" ... it appears that his party is the victim of one man's megalomania. If upheld, the results in Tabasco will be an encouraging sign that most Mexicans, even in Lopez Obrador's home state, now accept the verdict of July's presidential election."

Tabasco tragedy for PRD

2006-10-17T14:52:00.000-07:00

I had predicted a PRI victory in Tabasco, but not a ten point landslide. The PRD is pleading "fraud," but that could not account for such a gap (especially when the opinion polls match the ballots). Whether or not some fraud took place, unfortunately, no one seems to be taking the PRD seriously anymore.

This is the real legacy of AMLO. His charges became ridiculous, and his antics so obviously self-serving. Now, a good party (and perhaps a good Tabasqueno candidate) are now not taken seriously. If there was one state where I really did not expect to see this, it was Tabasco.

“It seems to me to be a catastrophe for him,” said Raymundo Riva Palacio, a political columnist for the newspaper El Universal. “On his own turf, the political costs of the protests and the taking of streets has taken its toll in an election.”

Oscar Luis RodrÌguez, a fellow Tabasqeuno of the PRD said: “Andres Manuel has lost credibility.... Here Andres Manuel was born, and here he has been buried.”

eyes on Tabasco

2006-10-06T09:07:00.000-07:00

The big question in Mexican politics today is how much AMLO's late summer antics hurt the long term prospects of his Democratic Revolution Party (PRD). All eyes are now on his home state of Tabasco, on the Gulf. On October 15 there will be an election for governor. Although Lopez Obrador won the state on July 2 with 57% of the vote, the PRD gubernatorial candidate is trailing in the polls, down by 9%.

some old myths are still around

2006-09-29T09:39:00.000-07:00

Even as things have returned to normal in Mexico (notwithstanding Oaxaca) and as most international reporters and academics have endorsed the election procedures, it is frustrating to still see some international propaganda attempt to tarnish the results of the July 2 election.

Here is an example of an anti-globalist site in Canada.

"Divided Mexico: The Bankers’ Alliance Holds on to Power"
by John W. Warnock (September 27, 2006)

The first part of this long article is a fairly accurate historical description of (pre IFE) electoral fraud, followed by a one sided (but not inaccurate) view of the presidential campaign (e.g., bankers and business wanted Calderon to win). However, when discussing the post July 2 news, factual distortions abound.

"The two television networks, Televisa and TV Azteca, did extensive exit polls which indicated that AMLO had won, but they did not report the results."

and the conclusion is that this election was a redux of 1988.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=WAR20060927&articleId=3348

Let's compare this analysis with a July 5 interview with Warren Mitofsky, published on the Pew site:

During the (first) ballot recount, Mitofsky was asked

"Do you think Calderón's current lead will hold up?

Right at the moment he is leading by just about the 200,000 votes I expect him to win by.

That's a thin margin, why do you think it will hold up?

Well look, there were two counts of the votes in Mexico. One is the preliminary count, which they put out on election night; the other is the real count, which has taken place over the past two days. In the real count, 99.5% of precincts have been counted and they show the same 200,000-vote lead they found in the preliminary count. And no one challenged the preliminary count -- no one said it was wrong -- so I expect the final count to mirror that.

Do you think the results of the exit poll will reduce chances of fraud in the recount?

This election commission is so squeaky clean, I don't anticipate fraud. There were international observers there who said this election was as clean as anything they had seen. The way the election commission works, is that it represents all the parties -- not just the major ones -- equally. They all have an equal voice, and they all got to inspect every last count that took place, at every polling place, at the 300 deputy districts where the votes were collected, and again at the national level. I don't see a whole lot of room for fraud.

So you think there is less chance for fraud in a Mexican election than in an American election?

I would think the Mexican system with its strong election commission that is uniform across the country would be better than anything we are doing in the U.S.

http://pewresearch.org/obdeck/?ObDeckID=36

It is apparent that political extremists live by ideology rather than fact, and that certain events are too precious to be examined factually: Sacco & Vanzetti, the Rosenbergs. The actual determination of a trial or the count of an election is subordinated to the requirements for propaganda.

Secretary Rice's comments

2006-09-28T14:01:00.000-07:00

Nothing is more unfortunate in interpersonal or diplomatic circles than when an attempt to make an objective comment (or even to offer a compliment) is taken as an offense. This happens all too often in the field of humor, and that of religion.

Earlier in the week, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was being interviewed by the Wall Street Journal and said this of Mexico's electoral process

"it's been a vote of confidence in the Mexican democratic system which is ... just now maturing in a kind of two party system."

Ruben Aguilar, spokesman for President Fox, expressed some concern that a foreign government was criticising Mexico's internal process.

Dr. Rice, as a Stanford political science professor, might be used to having her comments received as objective information or an authoritative evaluation, but in the world of diplomacy, things are interpreted as value judgments, and even attempts at praise can be construed as criticism. "Maturing" could be seen as "not grown up yet" and the two party system comment could be seen as pushing a north American model that may not fit Mexico's political climate (or Israel's or Canada's).

Now is the time for Rice to demonstrate her diplomacy skills and issue some kind words, and to follow this up with a show of respect for president Fox. Hopefully, in early December she will be meeting with the new president and work out some important deals benefitting both sides of the border.

passing of Warren Mitofsky

2006-09-28T13:55:00.000-07:00

Earlier this month, a great social scientist passed away. Psychologist Warren Mitofsky died in New York city of an aortic aneurysm, at age 71. Most of his early work was with the CBS network developing models for early projections (e.g., exit polling). While his firm was a relatively minor player in the U.S., it was the major polling firm in Mexico (and a half dozen other countries). The expertise and objectivity of Mitofsky polling has never been doubted. He will be missed, but to his credit, Miktofsky assembled a great team to carry on his work.

some northamerican newspapers responsible

2006-09-24T13:26:00.000-07:00

I am in southern California this month and am amazed at

1. the lack of coverage about Mexico

2. the coverage of local "Chicano activists" going to Mexico to participate in AMLO's demonstrations.

Some newspapers, magazines, and news agencies (e.g., Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Bloomberg) have consistently given accurate and pertinent coverage. It is heartening when local papers seek out experts on Mexico and give thorough coverage of the news and high level analysis.

Kudos to

http://www.axcessnews.com/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=11302

which contains interviews with professors of political science at Mexican universities (ITAM) and other experts.

Cardenas blasts AMLO

2006-09-17T17:09:00.000-07:00

It was obvious even before the election that Cuauhtemoc Cardenas had only lukewarm support for this years PRD presidential candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, but Cardenas kept a low profile before the election and in the post election disputes.

However, the movement begun by Cardenas must now decide if it is to go over the cliff of obscurity and derision by following AMLO or whether the PRD will remain a vibrant (but constitutional) movement in Mexican politics. Cardenas, to his credit, has chosen the latter.

"I am deeply worried by the intolerance and demonization, the dogmatic attitude dominant in Andres Manuel's environment for those of us who do not unconditionally accept his proposals and question his points of view and decisions."

http://www.mexidata.info/id1056.html

This progressive movement is more important than one man's aspirations. After three runs at the presidency under the PRD banner, Cardenas realized that.

its over

2006-09-11T20:30:00.000-07:00

AMLO's sore loser protests are passing from the stage of history with a whimper. These two factors indicate the effective end of his protests.

== He will take down the barricades for a weekend army parade
(prediction: they will not go back up)

== More of his PRD party members (e.g, governors of Chiapas and Michoacan, congressional deputies) are accepting the Calderon victory.

My prediction is that responsible members of the PRD will take control of the party and prevent AMLO from discrediting the party any further. The PRD will remain Mexico's number two party in the foreseeable future (if AMLO is not at the top). Given the right candidate and the right turn of events, the PRD could become the largest force in congress, and capture the presidency in six years.

the right call

2006-09-05T20:36:00.000-07:00

Part of me wanted the tribunal to call for a new election. I figured THAT would give the Mexican public a chance to show AMLO what they really thought about him and his post election antics, and it would finally shut him up.

However, when I reflected about the unanimous decision to validate the July 2 results showing a narrow victory for Calderon, I was certain that the tribunal had made the right judgment.

Good legal decisions are not just based upon the Constitution and precedent. Good decisions form a foundation for future rulings. If the tribunal had overturned the July 2 election and called for another, that could be seen as rewarding AMLO for his disruptions. It would only encourage the next sore loser to be more disruptive in hopes of getting a do-over election in which he might do better than AMLO.

So, the long term wisdom of the tribunal must be acknowledged.

TRIFE's ruling: no real fraud

2006-08-29T15:25:00.000-07:00

TRIFE, the independent seven judge panel has unanimously ruled that there was no massive fraud in the July 2. They threw out a small number of disputed votes (less than the difference between the two candidates) but the newly nullified ballots did not come mostly from Calderon. The bottom line is that AMLO is displeased and wasted no time with his rhetoric that the ruling was "an offense to all Mexicans."

great analysis from Mexico

2006-08-28T13:43:00.000-07:00

Kenneth Emmond, writing in El Universal, has proved as eloquent as he is incisive in his latest "Is Lopez Obrador a Revolutionary"?

http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=34173&tabla=articulos

http://www.mexidata.info/id1019.html

great analysis from Canada

2006-08-27T15:08:00.000-07:00

One of the most in depth foreign reports about the post-election situation in Mexico has just appeared in the Toronto Daily Mail by on the scene reporter Arno Kopecky, who asks the question if AMLO is "a saviour or a sore loser."

http://digbig.com/4mpmh

more PRDistas challenge AMLO

2006-08-10T19:27:00.000-07:00

Last weekend I was at the airport sending my goddaughter back home after spending a delightful summer. I met a woman who worked at UAEM and we began a conversation about the university. Some how, the conversation came around to AMLO's post election antics. She and many of her friends had been PRD supporters, but they have had it with Lopez Obrador. This is not just because he seems ungrateful for all the hard work his supporters (especially the volunteer poll watchers) did in the campaign, but because his disruptive tactics are going to hurt workers, small business people, students, and those who rely upon access to public services.

Back in Guerrero, one of my favorite PRDistas is governor Zeferino Torreblanca, former businessman and mayor of Acapulco. Always known for honesty, forthrightness, and independence, Zeferino urged a PRD rally to respect the processes of the law, and not to deny anyone his rights or liberties. The crowd broke into their non-logic chanting

“¡Voto por voto, casilla por casilla!”, “¡Fox, traidor, la patria no se vende!”, “¡Si no hay solución, habrá revolución!”, “¡Zeferino, voto por voto, casilla por casilla!”

http://digbig.com/4mhfk

A viable Mexican democracy requires at least two viable parties. The PRI is no longer viable (even if it never was committed to democracy). The PAN needs an opposition, but a loyal opposition that puts the nation above the interests of one sore loser. Fortunately, there are enough good women and men in the PRD to fill that role, but they too must come forward and call for adherence to the rule of law, obedience to the courts, and rejection of street solutions.

look who is supporting AMLO

2006-08-01T22:21:00.000-07:00

It is always interesting which U.S. political movements choose to ally themselves with Mexican political movements. They use the same buzzwords and rely upon the same rhetoric. Perpetual U.S. presidential candidate, Lyndon LaRouche, runs a movement that has been known under various names. His youth organization joined a southern California rally for Lopez Obrador. We see similar themes of a global conspiracy of international bankers.

"LYM member Freddy Coronel spoke first, and explained how the same forces behind the fraud in Mexicos presidential election today, are the same as those behind the Democratic Party abandoning the Franklin Roosevelt tradition for the filthy international bankers Felix Rohatyns drive toward global fascism. LaRouche's West Coast spokesman Harley Schlanger delivered the keynote address to those in attendance challenging both those present to join LaRouche in defending the sovereignty of the Mexican nation state from the grip of globalization ..."

http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/2006/060731lym_prd_rally.html

North American press on AMLO

2006-07-31T20:05:00.000-07:00

I have done a more thorough search of the North American press and was hearted to find some insightful coverage.

There is the usual depth at specialized sites like Carlos Luken at MexData

http://www.mexidata.info/id989.html

and of course Bloomberg tracks the bond, stock and currency markets
(the more that AMLO acts up, the more the BOLSA and peso go down)

http://digbig.com/4mede

I noticed three good articles this week, in

The Washington Post

http://digbig.com/4medh

The L.A. Times

http://digbig.com/4medg

and Miami Herald

The last is a special treat: Enrique Krauze

http://digbig.com/4medf

sitting tight until Sept 6

2006-07-28T17:03:00.000-07:00

The election will become official in September when (if) the Tribunal certifies it. In the meantime, I am amazed by a couple of phenomena.

1. AMLO is fomenting demonstrations. He will have his day in court, so why does he need to have these demonstrations? Could it be that he is trying to build momentum for the court's rejection of his case?

2. I am amazed at how the mainstream foreign press is basically ignoring the situation in Mexico, but the leftist media has seized upon it. The two comments to my last blog entry echo much of that English-language rhetoric. Interesting, the commentors have cast this in a religious light (which I have not emphasized in my previous postings).

Here is the view of one of the most politically aware religious sites in Mexico, Yo Influyo.

http://www.yoinfluyo.com.mx/artman/publish/article_6624.php

I must concur with that analysis, and trust that the tribunal will vindicate IFE.

more weight for vote legitimacy

2006-07-09T11:33:00.000-07:00

Over the last few days, the international press has weighed in on the Mexican election. From the U.S., Spain, England, and France, the election and its tabulation are seen as legitimate. World leaders from Bush (U.S.) to Martin (Canada) to Zapatero (Spain) have officially congratulated Calderon on his victory.

In today´s Rumbo de Mexico, the foremost of Mexico´s liberal intellectuals, Carlos Fuentes said ¨The presidential election was transparent¨and he urged his fellow citizens to accept the rule of constitutional law.

conspiracy theory

2006-07-07T10:08:00.000-07:00

I stumbled across another blog,

http://machete2006.wordpress.com/

This is an interesting conspiracy theory, with much more speculative theory than hard evidence of conspiracy. It sounds similar to that voiced by some of AMLOs followers: the PAN and IFE ¨manipulated¨ the count to give Calderon a victory.

At the micro level, I observed the voting and counting of the votes in three precincts, and detected no fraud.

At the macro level, I notice a great consistency between the exit polls of many different organizations, the PREP, and the current counts: all show a slight lead for Calderon. As a social scientist specializing in questionnaires ( http://heuristicbooks.com ) I think that attributing all of these consistencies between these separate polls and the IFE totals is more than a reasonable stretch.

Let´s admit that Calderon got more votes on Sunday.

If you want to say that the balloting was not valid because slick media duped the average voter into being afraid to vote for his own best interests (e.g., AMLO), that is another story, but don´t try to invent vote totals that don´t exist.

return to normalcy, but wait, not yet

2006-07-06T14:31:00.000-07:00

On Tuesday I went into DF to attend a conference at UNAM. The stall vendors in the markets were watching their portable TVs: soccer and soap operas. Was there an election last Sunday?
At the university I walked around the faculties of humanities, law, political science, and history. Students were reading their textbooks, flirting, and practicing some moves with soccer balls. I found this ANTI-AMLO bumper sticker in the parking lot of the students.

On Wednesday I was at a cibercafe across from another university UAEM in Toluca. The students flirted and downloaded Reggaeton videos. In the morning, women walked their uniformed children to their last week of school before vacation.

The Bolsa (Mexican stock market) is up to 20.329 on Tuesday, from 19.147 just before the election (a gain of 6.2% in two days). The Tuesday interbank rate for the peso/dollar exchange shows a stronger peso, 11.08 to the dollar, from 11.30 just before the election. The Wall Street Journal has dubbed this good news "the Calderon effect" based upon the likelihood of his victory and the improbability of any serious challenge to the results. But Wednesday, when the results became more confused, the stock market and peso fell again. Not quite normalcy, yet.

breadth & depth of PRI defeat

2006-07-06T14:30:00.001-07:00

On Monday I looked at three Toluca precincts to illustrate how badly the PRI fared in Sunday's election. A more comprehensive geographical and historical analysis reveals that point with even greater clarity.

Just nine years ago, the PRI held not only the presidency of the Republic, but 238 congressional seats, and in the session elected Sunday, it will be down to 113. Even in the last Congress, the PRI had more seats than any other party, but now it will be in third place.

If we look at those few governorships up for grabs, the PRI lost them all: Jalisco (Guadalajara), Guanajuato, Morelos (Cuernavaca), and DF (Mexico City).

But it is in the Presidential race that the PRI loss is most evident. Madrazo lost in every single state, even in those 17 that currently have a PRI governor. Indeed, in the majority of states, Madrazo was behind both AMLO and Calderon. Even in his home state of Tabasco, where he had served as its governor, he lost to AMLO 56.11% to 37.73%. Alas, that was his best showing anywhere.

Mexico State is most illustrative here. Just last year, the PRI candidate, Enrique Pena Nieto, garnered a clear majority of the votes, but Madrazo came in last place with less than a fifth.
To his credit, Madrazo was not a bad looser. He called the election procedures perfectly legal and he did not attempt to deflect the blame for his defeat on anyone else.

strategy in multi-party elections

2006-07-06T14:30:00.000-07:00

Anytime there are more than two candidates, the question arises if voting for anyone other than the top two constitutes a wasted vote. In this year's Mexican presidential election, the answer was "it depends." It depends primarily on the voter's individual agenda, motive, and purpose.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the PRD: People who voted for the poll leader were the least complicated in their motives. They resonated to his image and bought his promises. I have not heard anyone say that a vote for AMLO was just a way of defeating Calderon, Fox, or the PAN.

Felipe Calderon of the PAN: People who supported this relatively bland conservative did so because they liked his experience, his (relative) honesty, or his stand on the issues (pro-life, free market, tough on crime). Alternatively, I have spoken with several people who didn't particularly like Calderon (or the PAN in general) who voted for him simply because he was the one candidate with the best chance of denying the victory to AMLO. Some of Calderon's last ads even emphasized this strategy.

Roberto Madrazo of the PRI: I have yet to meet anyone outside of the PRI who thinks that Madrazo was the most likeable or the most honest or had the best stand on the issues. Just as there are some people in Eastern Europe who wax nostalgic about the stability of Communism, so there are some people in Mexico who long for the PRI bureaucracy and didn't want to see Madrazo lose by double digits (but he did). If someone's goal was to stop AMLO (or Calderon for that matter), voting for Madrazo would not be as effective as voting for a stronger opponent.
Patricia Mercado of the Alternative Party: She was the most articulate and left-leaning of the field, yet with no chance of a double digit percentage. Most of her supporters either don't trust AMLO to fulfill his promises or just wanted to keep up the pressure on issues such as reproductive rights. (She and Calderon are the only candidates to take firm, but opposite stands on abortion.) Most her supporters were convinced that AMLO would win, but hoped that a good showing for Mercado would pressure AMLO to fulfill promises and pressure the PRD to nominate future progressive candidates at every level.

Roberto Campa of the New Alliance: His campaign started out as an anti-Madrazo, PRIista revolt. His party obtained about 5% for the Senate and Deputies, but he himself garnered about 1% of the vote, despite being quite likeable and articulate. My inference is that his followers were more interested in defeating AMLO than in giving more votes to Campa's losing cause. Even if all of Campa's votes had been added to Madrazo's total, the PRI still would have landed in third place.

This election should have been a referendum on Fox, and Calderon (or any other PANista) should have won easily. It became a referendum on AMLO with both Calderon and Mercado supporters saying "no" but for different reasons. Madrazo and Campa lost their relevance to this discussion.

more praise for IFE

2006-07-06T14:29:00.000-07:00

The integrity of Sunday's electoral process has been accepted by two otherparties, Roberto Madrazo of the PRI and Roberto Campa of the New Alliance. More importantly, APCE (Asemblea Parlamentaria del Consejo de Europa), a group of observers from the EU has given its highest stamp of approval on the Mexican elections. "The Mexican elections were conducted at an unprecidented level of transparency and reliability rarely seen in the rest of the world."

Meanwhile, Jose Luis Barraza, president of CCE (Consejo Coordinador Empresarial) has stated "We should all respect the finalized results coming out of IFE, and accept them unconditionally."
This chorus was joined by Toluca Bishop Javier Chavolla who warned that any candidate who disqualifies such election results has only disqualified himself.

voto nulo 2006 = hanging chad 2000

2006-07-06T14:27:00.000-07:00

AMLO is grasping at straws, akin to the U.S. Democrats in 2000. Remember how they figured that Florida was the key in the electoral count and thought that if the vote totals could be recalculated and the questionable ballots counted, then they would win (under assumption that people not competent enough to punch their ballots correctly would be disproportionately representative of Gore supporters). Well, Lopez Obrador seems to be making similar assumptions.

In Mexico, what would be akin to hanging chads would be paper ballots known as these are known as "votos nulos." Each precinct is required to report these nullified votes along with the totals for each candidate. Let me describe the process by which a vote becomes nullified. After the polls close, and the precinct workers move to the counting stage, ballots are put into piles: this one for the PRI, that one for the PAN, the other for the PRD, etc. Observers from the three major parties watch to make sure that each ballot gets into the correct pile, then they count each pile again. The "votos nulos" form their own pile, and the observers must agree that is the best classification for each of those votes. Their total is usually less than one percent of all votes cast in the precinct. The usual reason for declaring a vote null is that the voter had marked more than one name.

On Sunday at the three precincts voting at my home, I observed no arguments over the dozen or so votes declared null.

Calm persists

2006-07-05T12:38:00.000-07:00

I went in to the city yesterday to attend a conference at UNAM. People in the market stalls are back to watching soccer and novelas and Reggaeton videos. Subway car hawkers are back to touting a promotional offer for miracle cream (smells like Vicks Vapo Rub but does so much more at only twice the price). Was there an election on Sunday?

Students at the faculties of humanities, history, law, and political science are waiting for the internal bus to take them to the metro, reading, flirting, practicing soccer ball control. Was there an election on Sunday?

Today I am at the cibercafe across from UAEM in Toluca. Students are playing basketball, flirting, downloading songs. Was there an election on Sunday?

The morning streets have women walking their uniformed children to school (the last week before many are off on summer vacation) and tanker trucks delivering natural gas. Was there an election on Sunday?

link to ongoing count

2006-07-03T13:49:00.000-07:00

The IFE link given out on TV last night just points to various exit polls.

Here is the direct link to ongoing tabulations.

http://elecciones.reforma.com/prep2006/default.htm

With 98.1% of the casillas tabulated, and Calderon holding a 1% lead at 15:30 hrs Monday it would appear to be an insurmountable lead, but we must remember that these vote totals are precincts, not ballots, so AMLO has a chance to close the gap, particularly if those casillas yet to report are from rural or indigineous areas.

A quote oft attributed to Yogi Berra applies to baseball as well as elections:

¨It´s not over until it´s over.¨

an analysis of voting patterns: Madrazo was a drag

2006-07-03T12:13:00.000-07:00

Looking at the results (pictured below) for three precincts in Toluca, one interesing pattern is clear. Just one year ago, in the July 2005 gubernatorial election in EdoMex, the PRI candidate, Enrique Pena Nieto, received a clear majority of the vote. Now, less than a quarter of the vote went for PRI senate and deputy candidates. From these data we should infer that last year´s PRI party loyalty among the electoral was broad, but shallow, and certainly not enduring.

Looking deeper at the data, notice that in the three precincts, Madrazo´s presidential totals were consistently less than those for the PRI at the Senate and Deputy levels. Some voters were saying yes to the PRI in the national Congress, but no to Madrazo as president. My informal discussions revealed two possible motives at work here.

1. some voters still regarded themselves as PRIistas, but were disappointed that Montiel was not the nominee, and this translated into anger at Madrazo.

2. some voters thought it was more important to stop AMLO than to give Madrazo a few more votes in an obviously losing bid.

AMLO saying the right things

2006-07-03T12:04:00.000-07:00

Lat night at 11:00 PM, the President of IFE, Luis Carlos Ugalde, did the most honest and courageous thing he could: he announced that quick ballot counts could not be relied upon in this election to project the winner, and that the Republic would have to wait for the complete count of the ballots.

Immediately, the TV covereage switched to the Zocalo and AMLO spoke. Although he claimed that he was ahead in (some unofficial, private) vote count by 15,000, he reaffirmed that he has no hatred for his opponents and that he will abide by the laws of the country, and if he is defeated by a single vote, he will accept that.

On June 29 he explained his economic policies to El Financiero, ¨In a few words, there will be a technical management, no economic ideology. Our formula for financing development does not require contracting debt or adding taxes¨(my translation).

The bond market fell last week in anticipation of an AMLO victory (or disruption in the wake of an AMLO defeat). This morning the BOLSA rallied because Calderon has a slight lead, and AMLO seems willing to accept defeat if the numbers go against him, or at least not be an enemy of international finance if he does in fact pull out a victory.

and the big loser is: Marcos

2006-07-03T12:00:00.000-07:00

Even though the votes have not yet been completely counted, it is obvious that one politician is the big loser in Sunday's election: that masqued marvel of the media "Subcomandante Marcos." Throughout the campaign, he traveled around with his latest moniker "Delegado Zero" and rushed to every possible spark of violence (e.g., Atenco) as if it could reignite his own fame. He took every opportunity to insult the unmasked candidates. Just last week he called for road blocks to "dislocate" the elections. His calls went unheaded, and his predictions of widespread fraud seem equally false. At over 130,000 polling places in the Republic, Mexican voters announced that masqued theatricality belongs in the wrestling ring, not in a transparent government. Millions of Mexicans have raised their inked thumbs to chant: IFE SI, MARCOS NO.

and the big winner is: IFE !!

2006-07-03T11:45:00.000-07:00

Election Day was transparent and civil, and perhaps joyous.

Before the days of hanging chads and fears that Diebold would steal votes electronically, there were the old paper ballots. I remember elections from the years 1956-1964 when my parents home in northern California was used as a precinct polling place. My parents were Republicans and our neighbors were Democrats, but we were all proud to come together and do our civic duties to make sure that votes were cast in an honest way.

Today, Sunday July 2, in Toluca is a deja vu. This time it is my house in Toluca being used as one of the nation´s 130,000 polling places. Two months ago, the Instituto Federal Electoral, IFE, called for volunteer locations, then visited our home and found it acceptable. Ten days ago they reconfirmed that everything was set and put out the sign on the house notifying the neighbors. They also put polling site information on the IFE website http://www.ubicatucasilla.org.mx ("find your polling place") and have a toll free number giving that information 01-800-433-2000. Both the website and phone number appeared in most newspapers.

Friday a team of about four arrived to unload some of the equipment that would be needed on election day. The polls were to open to the public at 8:00 AM, and at 6:55 the IFE official, an energetic and efficient man named Mr. Vilchis, assigned to this precinct arrived. I got out to tie up the dogs and back out the vehicles so that IFE could do the final set up with the ballots and boxes and purple ink markers. A half hour later, the line commenced, and although it never got a block long, it remained at least ten persons deep for hours.

What has impressed me most was the conduct of the election team and the voters. The team included official observers from each political party (properly identified by their buttons). The words which describe the people today are calm, upbeat, proud. Most brought their children to show them what democracy is like (and perhaps to talk about the bad old days of one party rule and phony elections). Many inexplicably drove to the polls in their cars (perhaps to show how everyone else how they are keeping up with the Garcias).

Several television stations had extensive election coverage of polling around the country. The reports show tranquility, a large turnout, and no major irregularities. In some places, people waited for over four hours in line to vote. Voting was going smoothly even in the "hot spots" of Oaxaca (a teacher's strike), Coahuila (disputes with miners over safety), and Atenco (where only a peaceful protest was staged).

There were belated photo-ops and sound bite moments for the candidates voting with their spouses in their home districts. As she had been throughout the campaign, Patricia Mercado was perhaps the most clear and eloquent when she said to reporters: "I am not here to proselytize, just to affirm my faith in the process." When asked if it was a scary day for her, she said that it would be better to describe the day as one that had been long hoped for. When asked what her plans were for the future, she pointed out: "That is for the voters to decide." I was also pleased to see one of Mexico's greatest living intellectual treasures, Carlos Fuentes, interviewed as he came out from voting. "Today the candidates don't count, it is we voters who count."

IFE is justifiably proud of its accomplishments, and the Mexican people should be proud of IFE. Fledgeling democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq have much to learn from Mexico (and dare I say, so does the U.S. electoral process).

an election eve prediction

2006-07-01T11:51:00.000-07:00

I called the race for Calderon after the first debate, and I am sticking with that prediction. More recent polls have been inconclusive or shown AMLO with a slight lead. However, my favorite pollster, Roy Campo of Mitofsky suggests that the results of the elections might still hold a big surprise.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/140035.html

One of his main points is that up to a tenth of the voters may make a last minute decision whether to vote or for whom to vote.

I foresee a large turnout and a narrow Calderon victory. Here are the dynamics

1. many undecideds and minor party supporters will switch to Calderon

2. many religiously oriented voters, though poor and in sync with AMLOs economic plans, will switch to Calderon.

Tomorrow, I shall spend the entire day observing a casilla (voting precinct) from set up to take down, and report on the process.

I think that there will be no definitive results until Tuesday at least.

Toluquenos calm, predict Calderon

2006-06-30T12:44:00.000-07:00

I arrived in Toluca Friday morning to cloudy skies, and 45 degree weather. This city is the polar opposite of Acapulco, where I left last night with 77 degrees at midnight.

Last week when I would ask an Acapulqueno who would win Sunday´s election, the quick response was ¨AMLO, but they might try to steal the votes.¨

Today, I am asking the same question to Toluquenos. One taxi driver´s answer has been typical. He paused, trying to consider the possible scenarios (or maybe trying to size up my bias) and then slowly stated CAL DER ON.

When I ask why will Calderon win, the answers diverge, but most think that the minor party supporters are anti-AMLO and enough of them will switch to Calderon to make a difference. A few also cited last Sunday´s efforts by the Catholic Church.

Some Toluquenos will vote for Lopez Obrador, but there is not the wild enthusiasm of Acapulco, nor is there the paranoia about vote tampering. Similarly, I don´t see any real hatred of AMLO, more of a frustration and disgust that he is probably more of an old PRIista, a lot of phony promises designed to get power.

I think whoever wins, Toluquenos will calmly accept the results and get to work at 5 AM on Monday at the Chrysler plant, while Acapulquenos will react emotionally and use this as an excuse not to go to work for a few days, due to being overwhelmed by joyous ecstacy or righteous anger.

precarious role of the Catholic Church

2006-06-28T17:13:00.000-07:00

There was a supplement in the local newspapers, a ten page insert sponsored by the Roman Catholic Church. Local bishops such as Franco here in Acapulco, and Cardinal Norberto in DF, and even Pope Benedict have spoken to the Mexican people with a cautiously worded message: go to the polls and vote your values. Under the Constitution of this country, clerics are severely limited in the political roles they may take. So, the church and bishops cannot say directly and clearly, Calderon SI, AMLO NO, but that is the gist of its efforts. Calderon is the clearest pro life candidate, and the rest waffle, except Mercado who is clearly pro-choice.

If the church succeeds in getting a fraction of the 80 percent of Mexicans who are Catholics to vote church endorsed positions, this could be a victory for Calderon.

Acapulquenos expect AMLO victory

2006-06-26T16:52:00.000-07:00

After Mexico lost the world cup match to Argentina over the weekend, the energy had to be channeled somewhere, and in Acapulco, it has gone back to the election.

AMLOs final campaign appearance in Acapulco packed Parque Papagayo. Almost all the presidential posters in this city are for him. The three main political parties here endorse him: the Revolutionary Democratic Party which has held the mayorship for three terms, the socialist Covergencia which usually places second in local elections, and the small but powerful Trotskyite Worker Party. Neither the PRI nor the PAN have been major players in local elections for almost a decade (and the PRI lost the Guerrero governorship last year to PRD).

Enthusiasm is high, but expectations are even higher: if AMLO were to lose next Sunday, it would not be taken well.

AMLO exudes confidence

2006-06-25T17:06:00.000-07:00

AMLO appears confident. Consider these factors.

1. He is no longer worried about answering charges or in cutting deals with Madrazo or Mercado or Campa.

2. His advertisements have gotten back to the bland one note themes of the beginning of the campaign.

3. He is no longer answering charges.

4. His attacks on Calderon this week are minimal.

5. His campaign is in familar territory which already backs him (like the big rally here in Acapulco Papagayo Park yesterday).

6. His posters emphasize the cartoon character of himself saying: Smile, we are going to win.

7. The ads for many senate and congressional candidates appear with him, presuming a coat tail effect.

On the other hand, the ads from Calderon seem to be calculating that his best chance is to get uncommitted voters wary of AMLO to get them on his side instead of that of Madrazo.

Although both AMLO and Calderon probably have access to better polling data than do I, I shall stick with my prediction: Calderon wins a very close contest next Sunday.

Calderon's 100 proposals

2006-06-20T18:35:00.000-07:00

To the outside observer, it seems like each of the five candidates for the presidency is trying to come up with a larger number of promises. Calderon now appears to have attained the most, 100 specific items introduced in a pamphlet distributed at a recent campaign rally. However, there is a qualitative difference. The other candidates, especially AMLO talk about direct hand outs to the poor, but Calderon talks about subsidies to companies who create jobs. On other points, Calderon's proposals seem more substantive and well thought out rather than headline grabbing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aNM_ubo9yhj4&refer=latin_america

The question to be answered on July 2: will the voters agree?

economic precariousness

2006-06-20T18:30:00.000-07:00

What has amazed me is the closeness of coverage of the election in the international financial news, such as Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=ayoMyHNYcrFI&refer=latin_america

The portent of a falling peso, decreased bond values, and eventual inflation are linked (at least in the minds of the international financial community) to the possible election of AMLO.

If he is not as bad as that community fears, AMLO has a great deal of convincing still left to do.

MEX PRI = U.S. DEMS = FAILURE

2006-06-10T10:09:00.000-07:00

MEX PRI = U.S. DEMS = PROFESSIONAL POLITICIANS = FAILED PROGRAMS = LOSERS

I have spent the last few weeks in my native California and observed the recent Governor's race.

Since the days of Franklin Roosevelt and Lazaro Cardenas, the Mexican PRI and the U.S. Democrats have portrayed themselves as the party of economic opportunity for the poor. Over the decades, both of these parties developed enduring legislative majorities, and became more interested in the careers of its members than in service to its stated constituency.

Time and again these parties have nominated the most internally powerful politico rather than the most popular candidate. In 1988 this led to the defection of Cuauhtemoc Cardenas and the creation of the PRD. For this election cycle, the PRI neglected candidates with better credentials (e.g., Gordillo, Montiel) because the Madrazo, the internal power broker, wanted the power of the presidency for himself.

This week the California Democrats exhibited similar tendencies. The bright young star of gubernatorial hopeful Steve Westly was extinguished. He had great credentials on the environment, choice, and education, with only one fatal flaw. The public employee unions and Senators Boxer and Feinstein had already picked their candidate: real estate developer and fund-raising guru Phil Angelides. Westly used his personal fortune from EBay to build an early double digit lead. The campaign turned negative, most voters stayed home, but the unions brought out their rank and file, and when the dust cleared, Angelides had won. Perhaps, it is more accurate to say, Angelides got the Democrat nomination, the right to face Republican Arnold Schwartzenegger in November. Polls consistently showed Westly ahead of Schwartznegger, but Angelides trailing the incumbant governor. The Democrats shot themselves in the foot, again.

Angelides and Madrazo were powerful enough to get their parties' nominations, but will lose in an open election. As the PRI has been supplanted by the PRD, so the U.S. Democrats will be supplanted by a party that cares more about its real constituencies than its members. I am not saying that Lopez Obrador will win next month: I am still predicting his loss. Indeed, he is probably not the best representative of the PRD really serving the poor. (We have numerous homegrown examples here in Guerrero.)

The U.S. Immigration Issue: a mismanaged dance

2006-06-10T10:03:00.000-07:00

The U.S. Congress is considering some immigration legislation. What has emerged is a dance of wrong steps and missed cues.

First, the "Minutemen" and "slock jock" radio talk show hosts have reached back into northamerican history to dip their buckets in the well of xenophobia: blame the immigrant for all problems from crime to imbalanced local budgets.

Second, there were pro-immigrant marches and a proposed boycott day both in the U.S. and Mexico. Mexicans were supposed to abstain from the roles of worker and customer at U.S. owned businesses. This approach was a mistake for several reasons. Here in Acapulco, workers showed up at WalMart and (Mexican) customers placed lunch time orders at KFC. Everytime such a protest failed to register economically, it showed its supporters as weak or disorganized. When the protests in U.S. cities commanded media attention and flew the Mexican flag or chanted revolutionary slogans ("El pueblo, unido ...") this only antagonized the right wing, and provided more propaganda sound bites and video clips.

Third, when President Fox visited several governors in the western U.S., he became the target of protests. The old stereotypes were repeated in the calls to the talk shows and letters to the editor in the local newspapers: "the illegal immigrants come here because the Mexican government is so corrupt and the Mexican economy is so bad." The media did not present the facts that the Fox administration has led Mexico to an historic peak of economic prosperity and political transparency.

Neither the U.S. public nor the Mexican public is thinking clearly or acting responsibly. Both sides should subdue their anger with another emotion: that of gratitude. Northamericans should be grateful for the immigrants who pick their fruit, clean their homes, mow their lawns, watch their children, construct their buildings, and prepare their meals. Mexican immigrants should be grateful for a host country that provides decent wages and schools for their children. Immigration has occurred, and been tolerated, because it is beneficial for both sides. The time has come to make it safe and orderly for both sides.

Fox and Bush have poll numbers that have gone up and down, and the measure of their greatness has been their ability to stay the course on unpopular policies and resist popular pressures. If both publics could be more grateful, and more quiet, perhaps their responsible heads of state could sit down and negotiate a just and mutually advantageous pact. The U.S. government could provide a systematic safe passage for Mexican migrants, and an orderly transfer for elementary school children. Reciprocally, the U.S. could ask local tuition rates for American students in Mexican medical schools and for easier access to the I.M.S.S. medical care for gabacho retirees.

SECOND DEBATE: AMLO too little too late

2006-06-10T09:56:00.000-07:00

This week's debate will do nothing to change the outcome of next month's election. No candidate was stellar. Leftist candidates Lopez Obrador and Patricia Mercado failed to gain traction. Madrazo and Campa bickered, but Calderon still looked the most presidential and unperturbed. The trends set in motion in the last debate will continue, and Calderon will win.

So who won the debate?

Here is a summary of post debate from polling data, courtesy of Yo Propongo newsletter.


Medio informativo	Felipe Calderón	Andrés López	Roberto Madrazo	Paticia Mercado	Roberto Campa
Reforma	44%	30%	11%	3%	2%
El economista	65.8%	19.4%	9.3%	5.5%	0%
La crónica	42%	29%	nd	8%	nd
Excélsior	35%	35%	27%	3%	1%
Diario Monitor	36.95%	56.42%	3.33%	1.36%	1.94%

the importance of polling

2006-05-15T17:53:00.000-07:00

Polling is essential in modern elections, and no where is this more the case than in this year's presidential election in Mexico. I am not primarily concerned with the benefits that polling offers to the candidates (always inviting them to tweak the campaign in order to score a few points higher with a certain demographic). I do not believe that most people, Mexican or Northamerican are greatly influenced by polling data: either in terms of for whom to cast the ballot or whether or not it is even worth showing up to the precinct casillas.

Polls are needed to legitimate the election outcomes. In the 2000 election in the U.S., pre-election polls showed a dead heat between G.W. Bush and Al Gore. On election day, the slight plurality for Gore lead many Democrats to consider Bush's Electoral College victory somewhat illegitimate (and made vote tampering charges seem more plausible). But, of course, Mexico is not plagued by the same arcane electoral procedures.

The most essential role of private, professional and academic polling in any fledgeling democracy is to grant legitimacy to the results. A case in point would be the 1988 elections in Mexico (about which I have commented in depth in a previous blog). When the results came out (over a week late), no one took them as a serious, accurate count, but labeled them as PRI vote manipulation.

About the same time, there was a governor's race in Tabasco, and the same charges of fraud were levied by the "loser." He organized (mostly peaceful) protests design to shut down the state government. What amazed most of the observers was the duration and scale of these protests. Why this historical example is most relevant for us today is that the purported winner of that Tabasco governor race was Roberto Madrazo and the tenacious loser was Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Last month, Enrique Andrade González reflected on the damage that an AMLO victory would do to Mexico's economy and concluded

"The greatest danger to Mexico's economic, social and political stability is not if López Obrador wins, but if he loses the presidency. The world is expecting AMLO to win, and any different result would be questioned at home and abroad. Plus they are preparing the way to impugn the election results should AMLO lose, so as not to let the next government take office."

My hope is that the polling data just prior to the election will show one candidate winning by at least five percentage points and well beyond the statistical margin or error, and that the election results show that same candidate winning. If the pre-election surveys show a dead heat and Calderon wins by a few thousand votes (even if there is no verifiable incidence of fraud), I have no doubt that AMLO will repeat his poor loser tactics of Tabasco.

It is only the pollsters who can legitimize the next president of Mexico, but vouchsafing that he was elected in an honest election. Despite the excellent work of the Federal Elections Institute IFE over the past few years in the last presidential election and numerous local and state elections in this new century, it is the pollsters who will legitimate IFE, and not the other way around.

HOW SERIOUS ARE THE AMLO CAMPAIGN MISTAKES?

2006-05-09T11:54:00.000-07:00

Kenneth Emmond is a freelance journalist (with a background in economics). Like me, he has lived in Mexico for over a decade. He is always informed, and frequently flashes keen insights. One of his most analytical pieces for El Universal was repeated in the 7 May Miami Herald.

Emmond re-examined the Lopez Obrador campaign and explored "... three mistakes, each one potentially fatal to his Election Day success: micromanagement, intransigence, and denial. Errors or not, these are not traits one normally looks for in a national leader." The entire piece is worth a read.

http://digbig.com/4hncg

I must concur with his concerns. While I do not think that mounting an effective national political campaign guarantees a competent helmsman of the ship of state, a failing campaign is a symptom of some deeper problems. Something is lacking: the ability to

1 - acquire funds

2 - select competent subordinates

3 - delegate

4 - monitor ongoing developments

5 - flexibly adjust one's course

Number one sinks many honest amateurs in the political realm, but the other factors clearly portend a failed presidency.

the battle of San Mateo Atenco

2006-05-05T15:15:00.000-07:00

Not making much news north of the border was this week's skirmish about 10 miles north of Mexico City. A radical farmers' movement has had deteriorating relations with the Edo Mex state police. Subcomandante Marcos visited San Mateo Atenco during the previous week and may have stirred a few coals. As with most cases of civil disobedience, whether it was a rebellion, an uprising, an insurgency or a riot depends upon your point of view. The police came in and made some arrests, encountered some resistance, beat some of those who were apprehended, then the locals took several police hostage. I am less interested in who did what to who when and how (but here is a link to a more in depth story.

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/americas/05/05/mexico.police.ap/

I am more interested in the impact of this kind of disturbance on the July 2 election. To the extent that such events are seen as unfortunate and rare occurrances, they should have no impact on the election. However, if one side is seen as unjust, unreasonable, or excessive, the other extreme may benefit.

For example, if the police are seen as unjust, then that makes the police, state authorities, federal authorities, President Fox, and by extension, PAN candidate Calderon, look bad. From Duran to Fox to Mendoza to Juan Rodolfo, PANistas have staked out the mano dura strategy. When the police looks bad, the PANistas look bad.

If the local rebels are seen as excessive, that could do more than make the local leaders look bad, and also Marcos who (although he was safely in Mexico City when the trouble started) has connected himself with this movement, and possibly anyone who advocates for the poor (e.g., AMLO). This may be the supreme irony, that Marcos runs around the country criticizing Lopez Obrador, but the only way he can really hurt him is to make himself look bad by discrediting all leftist movements.

The Debate Determined the Election

2006-04-28T09:57:00.000-07:00

I have said all along that the Mexican Presidential election was too volatile to call. Regardless of the large past leads of AMLO in the polls, I doubted that his support (or that of any other candidate) was solid enough to withstand unfolding events.

Now, there is a clear trend, and I shall predict the next president of Mexico: Felipe Calderon.

In this week's debate, we must consider each candidate: the votes won, the votes lost, and the votes cost other candidates. It is this last aspect that may prove decisive.

Lopez Obrador of the PRD: his no-show won him no votes, and accentuated his weakness. He missed a golden opportunity to clarify the fuzziness, and outline realistic steps for meeting the fantasies of his over-extended promises. Maybe by not putting his foot in his mouth or presenting a visible target (beyond the empty seat) AMLO figured he would minimize the vote loss. However, in the area of vote cost, we see the real damage. The other candidates who won votes did so at AMLO's expense.

Felipe Calderon of the PAN: the best prepared, the most optimistic, and the clear winner according to post-debate polls.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/17980.html

His appearance not only won over some undecideds, but also some of the younger voters who may have been attracted to AMLO's message of progress.

Patricia Mercado of the Alternative Party (aka Social Democrat & Farmer): She was also articulate & optimistic, but much less specific than Calderon. She was probably the only other candidate to win votes by her presentation, and no doubt she stripped them away from AMLO. If you are going to be a progressive, it is better to appear to be optimistic and honest, and she beats AMLO on both of these counts.

Roberto Madrazo of the PRI: He has to be considered the biggest loser of the night. This debate was the last real chance he had to ignite his campaign. The one issue which could have propelled him (competence & experience) was not advanced amid the petty charges and inadequate defenses. When Madrazo goes negative, he looks bad. Even when his negative rhetoric against AMLO is effective, he wins a vote for Calderon, not for himself.

Roberto Campa of the New Alliance: Although much of what he said may have rung true, he looked like more of an anti-Madrazo disgruntled former PRIista than someone with a fresh reframing of the political landscape. He probably won few votes for himself, but cost Madrazo many.

Bottom line: Calderon is heading for victory. The Bolsa (stock market) can smell six more years of stability and prosperity.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/17980.html

Let's see what happens on June 6, the next round.

Dick Morris gives insight into the election

2006-04-13T16:36:00.000-07:00

Dick Morris was one of Bill Clinton's campaign advisors. Morris' views on politics are always interesting, usually controversial, and sometimes very insightful. Such is the case with a new article on the Mexican election.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/4/4/171711.shtml

I think he overestimates the "threat" of AMLO to the U.S., but Morris is right about one thing: if the U.S. Congress works out a pro-immigrant law, this will play well in Mexico and could defuse some of AMLO's steam while giving the PAN a sort of victory.

interpreting the Edo Mex municipal elections

2006-03-29T11:21:00.000-08:00

Earlier this month, the Estado de Mexico held local elections for representatives to the federal congress (diputados) as well as mayors (presidentes municipales). The foreign press is reading this as a major victory for the PRD and an indication of AMLO's strength. I would caution against both of those inferences.

The PRD won in the two largest cities (suburbs of Mexico City: Nezahualcoyotl and Ecatepec). The PRD previously held the mayorship in Neza and last year's PRD governor candidate did well in both cities. Ecatepec had a PRI mayor, but performance had been disappointing, so the PRD capture of that city hall is understandable. What was largely ignored is that three other leading cities were won by the PAN: Tlalnepantla, Naucalpan and Toluca (the state capital).In all three cases, this was predictable: the PAN had these mayorships and a solid record of accomplishment.

In terms of congressional seats, the PRI is down and the PRD is up, and the PAN was stable.

My interpretation of these data is that Mexican voters do not have party loyalty. Last July, the PRI candidate won half the votes in the state (and here in Toluca). These same voters just gave a comfortable margin to the PAN candidate for mayor, Juan Rodolfo, though last year's PAN candidate for governor got only about a third of the vote.

The implications of this for the forthcoming presidential election is that no party can take the voters for granted.

KRAUZE´S CONCERNS ABOUT AMLO

2006-03-21T14:38:00.000-08:00

The highpoint of the March 11 seminar at Stanford was the keynote address by historian Enrique Krauze (author of many articles and books, perhaps most notably La Presidencia Imperial). I knew going in that whatever he would say, he would say it well, no matter how mundane or miniscule the content. What I was not prepared for was the profundity: he cut to the heart of this election, and laid it out bare.
In a little over a half an hour, Krauze covered his Aristotelian roots and Mexican political history to bring us the proper philosophical and historical context for appreciating the importance of this election. Mexico has been evolving over at least two decades toward democracy. For example, the power of the president over the central bank has been greatly reduced.

Krauze did not feign neutrality nor did he exhibit the verneere of a dispassionate scholar. Krauze identified himself as a leftist and passionate advocate of democracy, a democracy which is more than holding elections, but a democracy that maintains transparency and sustains accountability. Krauze acknowledged his enthusiastic support for the recent triumph of Latin American leftists such as Bachelet in Chile and Lula in Brazil (I don't think he mentioned Morales in Bolivia). On the side of disapproval, Krauze mentioned Chavez in Venezuela (and by way of historical example, Peron in Argentina). Although these men were leftists in some sense, and may have had the approval of the masses, they cannot be considered democrats, because they sought to consolidate power and weaken those institutions that provide transparency and accountability.
Krauze had very little to say about the PAN or PRI. He dismissed the PAN as having a "genetic" problem. They evolved during the long period of PRI dictatorship. The PAN emphasized being internally transparent and squeaky clean. They have moral authority, but they just don't know how to run a government (analogy: Walensa in Poland). The PRI only seems to know how to win an election when it controls the government (and since it doesn't, it can't). Krauze raised the issue on stage that I have heard mumbled in private over the past year: the PRI goofed in its internal selection process by handing the nomination to the most widely known, least respected, most unelectable candidate, Roberto Madrazo.

From his philosophical and historical foundation, Krauze expressed his judgment (doubts, concerns) regarding Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Is he another Bachelet or another Chavez? The short answer is neither; AMLO is not a female like Bachelet nor a general like Chavez. But, Krauze seemed genuinely concerned about AMLO's charisma, and in reviewing the record as chief administrator of the Federal District, Krauze was not impressed with AMLO's commitments to due process or transparency. "Tengo grandes dudas que el puede representar mi izquierda" ("I have grave doubts that AMLO will can represent my kind of leftism.") Lopez Obrador could blend his personal charisma with a messianic tendency and revitalize the party-based hegemony of Mexico's past institutions as simply as by pulling in the left wing of the PRI. Krauze's conclusion was "un caudillo carismatico ... altamente peligroso" ("a charismatic authoritarian ... highly dangerous"). One of the audience questions (more of a rebuttal) came from PRD representative Saul Escobar who tried to downplay the messianic themes, but Krauze responded "I see the temptation of absolute power."
Beyond the carefully chosen and clearly enunciated words, the gestures, expressions, and tone of Krauze revealed much. This is not someone criticizing a politician out of envy nor the kind of haughty scorn that academics sometimes have for real world practitioners. Krauze's mood was one of disappointment and fear. He desperately wants Mexico to keep on the progressive path, but fears what kind of detour AMLO might take the country on.

PRI DEFECTIONS: behind the scenes

2006-03-21T14:37:00.000-08:00

Over the weekend, several U.S. newspapers have carried or reported on a story published March 17 in El Universal: a defection of some PRI leaders from the Madrazo camp. These 18 high profile PRIistas are federal deputies (i.e., members of the national congress).

American newspapers may imply that this is the first crack in the wall for Madrazo support, and that a flood is soon to follow. This prediction may be right, but we must come to the proper understanding of the present defection. The current crop leaving the Madrazo camp are largely members of the teachers union and this is being done in sympathy with Elba Esther Gordillo (who in the opinion of some should have been the PRI candidate for president). Gordillo was the foremost member of the PRI to try reach across the party aisle to cooperate with President Fox (and both of these brave individuals received the censure of the politicos for putting nation above party). I see this defection of the 18 as punishment of Madrazo for his past sins. The loss of this support was expected, and will not trigger anyone else to jump ship.

One question remaining to be answered is what will become of these 18 (and the charismatic Gordillo and the thousands of school teachers that they represent)? Officially, they have created the "Independent Parliamentary Reform Group." Their sights are set well beyond July's election, and it is unclear how their actions will impact that event.

What Madrazo has to worry about now, is not the loss of these 18 who never supported him, but the future defection of current supporters. PRI candidates always built their defacto campaigns around one issue: "I am going to win, so you better support me." As Madrazo's poll numbers fall deeper into third place, he cannot run on that issue, and if there are any other issues out there, they have not gotten any traction so far.

I do predict a mass of PRI defections, but not for Madrazo's past sins of demoting Ms. Gordillo, but for his present sin of demoting himself in the national polls. Don't expect PRIistas to stick with Madrazo "out of principle."

CARLOS SALINAS WARNS OF AMLO

2006-03-21T14:36:00.000-08:00

Sometimes the right message is delivered by the wrong messenger (and instead of being heeded, incites open resistance).

Fifteen years ago, Carlos Salinas de Gortari was the darling of the international business community. He was haled as one who understood the multinational, private enterprise, international finance dimensions of third world development. Indeed, there would be no impetus toward free trade today if CSG had not championed NAFTA (as Americans call it).

Unfortunately, toward the end of his sexenio, it became obvious that the Salinas' regime was rife with corruption, and that his free trade and privitization moves had transformed some millionaires into billionaires, but made subsistence farmers, workers, and even certain segments of the middle class more vulnerable. When he left office in 1994, Salinas became an icon of scorn, with cartoon drawings of a chupacabras figure with the head of Salinas, and a caption "se busca" (a sort of wanted poster).

Now, Salinas is warning his countrymen (well, if he still lived in this country they would be his countrymen) that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador could undo two decades of progress on the international economic front.

If AMLO actually followed through on his promises, that would be the result.
However, Salinas is the wrong messenger. Many poor Mexicans regard this ex-president as a mouthpiece for international bankers, and when Salinas critises AMLO, this may vindicate his standing ("Wow, AMLO is really going to sock it to the bankers, Yeh!").

There is another ex-president of Mexico, at least as well respected by economists worldwide. Ernesto Zedillo lacks much of the Salinas baggage. Zedillo writes a quarterly column for Forbes, but has otherwise chosen a largely academic life during retirement. Perhaps it is time for Zedillo to speak out on the shape of Mexican politics in 2006.

THE MURDERS OF JUAREZ WOMEN: LOOKING BEYOND THE STATISTICS

2006-03-21T14:35:00.000-08:00

Some Mexican government officials are still trying to quell foreign rancor over the continued murders of women in the biggest border city, Ciudad Juarez. Last month, statistics were released that, over the same decade long period, there were more female homicides in Toluca, than in Ciudad Juarez. Sometimes you just know that the numbers can't be right. Toluca is much smaller, mroe stable, and more prosperous. Indeed, on the scale of recreation being high risk / high excitement, Toluca and Juarez would occupy the opposite ends of the spectrum. Toluca is one of the most family-oriented, sober, and somewhat boring places in all of the Republic, while Ciudad Juarez would only compete with Acapulco and Tijuana for the title of extreme excitement/risk. Bottom line: those numbers coming out of Toluca must represent the entire state of Mexico (of which Toluca is the capital) and probably also include high population, high poverty, high instability areas such as the slums around Mexico City (e.g., Ecatepec, Nezahualcoyotl).

Now there are some new comparison numbers, clarifying the figures by state and city. During 2005 there were 32 reported female homicides in Ciudad Juarez, but 141 in Acapulco. These cities are comparable in size (maybe with Juarez a little more populous) and both with well earned reputations for nightlife and drug wars.
I hope that the Mexican government(s federal, state, and munipipal) put the proper spin on these numbers. The conclusion is not "Juarez has no significant problem" but "other Mexican cities have the same problem of femicide" (though they have been slow to acknowledge the fact).

Juarez must be seen as the canary in the mine shaft. It came to international attention because of its proximity to the U.S., the presence of U.S. companies as maquiladoras, and the unexplained nature of so many of the disappearances (perhaps suggesting a serial killer or killers).

Perhaps Acapulco's murders have not gotten onto the radar screen because few were mysterious (with the exception of the serial prostitute killings mentioned last July). Most seem to follow the age old pattern of domestic violence.

It is laudable that all levels of government have sprung into action over the dozen or so politically related male homicides here in Acapulco last year, but lamentable that twelve times that number of female homicides did not trigger a similar response (perhaps, because those killings do not make the nightly news broadcasts in Cincinnati).

Who will Convergencia Support?

2006-03-21T14:33:00.000-08:00

In last year's Mexico State elections, the Convergencia party formed a nominal alliance with the PAN. That did not make much sense for a party which tries to pattern itself on the European socialist model. It certainly did not help Ruben Mendoza, PAN candidate for governor, but Convergencia is still weak throughout most of the country. One big exception is here in Acapulco, where the last two mayoral elections were fought between the PRD-PT alliance and the Convergencia. The PRI and the PAN were not on the radar screen. In both elections, the Convergencia was headed by Luis Walton, and lost in a close race. Between the two elections, Walton ran for Congress, and this year he is running for Senate. He has pretty much become synonymous with this party in GRO, and he shocked a few of his supporters by indicating that he might be supporting Lopez Obrador for the presidency.

From the perspective of both the party and its leader, this makes sense. The PT-PRD-Convergencia are all to the left of the PRI (which is all over, but mostly center-right), and the PAN. Walton needs to support a winner, and AMLO looks like that.

Krauze expresses concerns about AMLO

2006-03-16T21:58:00.000-08:00

The highpoint of the March 11 seminar at Stanford was the keynote address by historian Enrique Krauze (author of many articles and books, perhaps most notably La Presidencia Imperial). I knew going in that whatever he would say, he would say it well, no matter how mundane or miniscule the content. What I was not prepared for was the profundity: he cut to the heart of this election, and laid it out bare.

In a little over a half an hour, Krauze covered his Aristotelian roots and Mexican political history to bring us the proper philosophical and historical context for appreciating the importance of this election. Mexico has been evolving over at least two decades toward democracy. For example, the power of the president over the central bank has been greatly reduced.

Krauze did not feign neutrality nor did he exhibit the verneere of a dispassionate scholar. Krauze identified himself as a leftist and passionate advocate of democracy, a democracy which is more than holding elections, but a democracy that maintains transparency and sustains accountability. Krauze acknowledged his enthusiastic support for the recent triumph of Latin American leftists such as Bachelet in Chile and Lula in Brazil (I don’t think he mentioned Morales in Bolivia). On the side of disapproval, Krauze mentioned Chavez in Venezuela (and by way of historical example, Peron in Argentina). Although these men were leftists in some sense, and may have had the approval of the masses, they cannot be considered democrats, because they sought to consolidate power and weaken those institutions that provide transparency and accountability.

Krauze had very little to say about the PAN or PRI. He dismissed the PAN as having a “genetic” problem. They evolved during the long period of PRI dictatorship. The PAN emphasized being internally transparent and squeaky clean. They have moral authority, but they just don’t know how to run a government (analogy: Walensa in Poland). The PRI only seems to know how to win an election when it controls the government (and since it doesn’t, it can’t). Krauze raised the issue on stage that I have heard mumbled in private over the past year: the PRI goofed in its internal selection process by handing the nomination to the most widely known, least respected, most unelectable candidate, Roberto Madrazo.

From his philosophical and historical foundation, Krauze expressed his judgment (doubts, concerns) regarding Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Is he another Bachelet or another Chavez? The short answer is neither; AMLO is not a female like Bachelet nor a general like Chavez. But, Krauze seemed genuinely concerned about AMLO’s charisma, and in reviewing the record as chief administrator of the Federal District, Krauze was not impressed with AMLO’s commitments to due process or transparency. “Tengo grandes dudas que el puede representar mi izquierda” (“I have grave doubts that AMLO will can represent my kind of leftism.”) Lopez Obrador could blend his personal charisma with a messianic tendency and revitalize the party-based hegemony of Mexico’s past institutions as simply as by pulling in the left wing of the PRI. Krauze’s conclusion was “un caudillo carismatico … altamente peligroso” (“a charismatic authoritarian … highly dangerous”). One of the audience questions (more of a rebuttal) came from PRD representative Saul Escobar who tried to downplay the messianic themes, but Krauze responded “I see the temptation of absolute power.”

Beyond the carefully chosen and clearly enunciated words, the gestures, expressions, and tone of Krauze revealed much. This is not someone criticizing a politician out of envy nor the kind of haughty scorn that academics sometimes have for real world practitioners. Krauze’s mood was one of disappointment and fear. He desperately wants Mexico to keep on the progressive path, but fears what kind of detour AMLO might take the country on.

STANFORD UNIVERSITY HOSTS SEMINAR ON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: great quality, poor attendance

2006-03-16T10:50:00.000-08:00

On Saturday, March 11, Stanford University hosted a seminar on the upcoming Mexican presidential election. There were three sessions: one on the role of the media, the keynote address by Enrique Krauze, and the electoral agenda of the (three main) political parties.

The morning session on the media was moderated by Leo Zuckerman (most famous for his column in El Universal and work on Radio Formula). Panelists included Marco Antonio Gomez (of IFE, the Federal Electoral Institute), Javier Corral (PAN senator), Martin Espinosa (radio Grupo Imagen), and Roy Campos (Consulta Mitofsky). It was the presentations by Campus and Krauze that were most profound, and merit separate entries on this blog.

The afternoon session was moderated by Stanford Professor Alberto Diaz-Cayeros who deserves high marks for keeping the discussion focused and on time. The PAN was represented by Federico Doring, the PRD by Saul Escobar, and the PRI by Roberta Lajous. Doring was content to repeat the PAN positions and quantify the nation's progress over the Fox sexenio. He largely ignored the other two panelists, and they ignored him. Lajous and Escobar traded barbs on issues such as crime and corruption. Both tried to do extreme makeovers on the perceptions of their candidates. Lajous tried to portray Madrazo as an experienced and competent former governor and dedicated internal reformer of the PRI. Escobar tried to portray the PRD as seeking to reduce Mexico's traditional, authoritarian corporate state mentality by adopting a more European Parliamentary governmental structure.

Questions from the audience were permitted. Some of them seemed like mini speeches, and none succeeded in raising any issues that the panelists could not address.

If there was one theme which could be found in all the presentations, it was that no one is making a confident prediction as to the outcome. Things are still fluid.

The presentations were in Spanish (except for some introductory remarks by Stanford Professor Larry Diamond) and very few people in the audience requested headphones for translation. Indeed, only about hundred people (mostly of student age) dotted the Kresge Auditorium.

This seminar was presented by "Mexicanos at Stanford" and the John S. Knight Fellowships for journalists and Yost House. Other sponsors included the Center on Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law, the Center for Latin American Studies, New Student Initiatives, Bechtel International Center, El Guiding Concilio, El Centro Chicago, Camacho Fund, Associated Students of Stanford University Speakers Bureau and United Airlines.

Aznar meddling?

2006-03-08T13:44:00.000-08:00

When I lived in Spain back in 2000, one of the highpoints was to attend a Partido Popular campaign rally in Salamanca. Aznar arrived a half hour late, but the packed crowd in the convention center cheered him on. Not since the halcion days of Ronald Reagan had I heard such confident and conservative prose. The self-assured Aznar had his eyes focused on his future vision for Spain, and he never took a glimpse to the side to consider how his poll numbers were doing.

Aznar came to Mexico and lent his moral weight to the PANista cause. This Madrid Catholic prep school grad is a soul mate of George Bush in many areas, and naturally gravitated to the PAN (as Chavez gravitated to Lopez Obrador).

Now, some have suggested that Aznar should be kicked out of the country.

Here is what he said back in February in Mexico.

Querido presidente Manuel Espino;

Querido secretario general del Partido Acción Nacional;

Queridas amigas y amigos.

Muchas gracias por recibirme en esta casa, muchas gracias por invitarme a esta casa, muchas gracias por lo que se acaba de leer, menos mal que solamente ha salido una parte, tampoco hay mucho más de currículum, solamente me permito añadir dos cosas, que lo más importante de mi currículum en este momento son dos cosas que no se han dicho, o tres:

Una que tengo dos nietos, lo cual es muy importante y la otra que soy amigo de México y del PAN.

Para mi es una gran alegría estar aquí una vez más en México, estar en la sede con mis amigos del PAN, tengo muy buenos amigos en México, pero mis amigos más amigos están en esta sede, como es natural.

Entonces quiero decirles que para mi es muy grato volver a esta casa, a esta sede y recibir esta invitación porque como ha dicho Manuel Espino, sí recuerdo que hace cinco años fue elegido presidente de Internacional Demócrata Cristiana, que aquí la modernizamos y también la adecuamos en nombre para llamarla Internacional Demócrata de Centro y se hizo en esta misma sala, todavía no existía esta mesa, esto es sólo para gente importante, nosotros estábamos abajo todos.

Se hizo todas las reuniones, se hizo la escena abajo, ahora vengo aquí y vuelvo cinco años después, no en la condición de presidente de la Internacional sino en condición de expresidente de Internacional, era presidente hasta 15 días pero dejé de ser presidente hace 15 días también voluntariamente, yo voy renunciado a las cosas voluntariamente y siguiendo la doctrina de un viejo político español que decía: que lo más importante de ser presidente es que ya nunca te van a poder quitar la condición de ex presidente y esa es una circunstancia siempre ha sido importante.

Ahora soy presidente de honor del presidente de honor del partido (..), ahora soy presidente de honor de la Internacional, ahora soy ex presidente del gobierno de España, ahora solamente soy presidente de la Fundación FAES y con eso estoy muy satisfecho y muy contento pero evidente el no estar en la primera línea política no quiere decir que yo no esté preocupado, que me preocupan mucho naturalmente los asuntos políticos, los asuntos políticos de España y los asuntos políticos de todo el mundo y especialmente también aquí en México.

Mexican pride ... U.S. thanks

2005-09-19T18:10:00.000-07:00

In the wake of hurricane Katrina, Mexican Marines have deployed in the U.S. One of the most famous units, Los Anfibios A 411, based in Tampico, has special training and equipment for flood rescue (so frequently called for in the Mexican Gulf States). From around the Republic, convoys of Marines, Soldiers, and Sailors have headed north and east. Rolling through Texas, they were cheered by Americans waving Mexican flags. It is estimated that over 150 tons of food, clothing, and medicine have been delivered, along with 400 portable toilets, two mobile surgical units, two portable kitchens (feeding 3,700 people a day), one hospital ship, and even a water potable plant. From all Americans (in the U.S. and out) thank you President Fox, thanks to Carmen Segura Rangel, coordinadora general de la Secretaria de Governacion, and most of all, thanks to the Mexican military.

Marcos again .... what this time?

2005-09-19T18:09:00.000-07:00

In the four dimensional chess game that is Mexican politics, it is hard to tell what is real and what is not, who is sincere, and who is attempting to fool the voters, and who is trying to help a candidate by criticizing him, and who is really running things.

Last month Subcomandante Marcos met with 60 Indian organizations (trying to convince the press that, a. he is not dead, and b. someone should care about it). Marcos attacked the PRD, specifically Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The subcomandante portrayed AMLO's renovation of the historical centro as a giveaway to billionaire Carlos Slim.

OK, Subcomandante (or whatever title you have invented for yourself these days), what is your agenda? Do you want to help the PRI by discrediting the PRD? Do you want AMLO to go to the Lacandon and negotiate a cabinet post in exchange for your support? Do you fantasize that Mexicans from across the Republic will on election day say "AMLO No, Subcomandate Si"?

Who deserves credit?

2005-09-19T18:07:00.000-07:00

ECONOMY: Mexicans never had it so good. I don't think its just Toluca, most of the country
seems to be enjoying progress. In 2004 real GDP expanded by 4%, and may do slightly better this year.

The maquiladora factories have added 84,000 jobs over the past year.

The Bolsa stock market has been one of the world's strongest over the past year.

The high oil prices and money sent home by Mexicans working abroad are major sources of foreign exchange.

Public spending has not lagged. There are 73 new universities, a billion free textbooks distributed in the public schools, and 23,000 new classrooms with electronic "blackboards."

Who deserves the credit? President Fox's sound fiscal management has kept government revenues growing, the peso strong, and foreign investment forthcoming. Enlightened state governors (and mayors) of all three parties have put infrastruction and attracting business high on the priority list. There is enough prosperity for the credit to be shared, but let's not give credit to the national chamber of deputies, split 224 PRI, 149 PAN, 97 PRD. Sorry, the gridlock and defense of old turf were not the keys to prosperity and progress, but impediments that Fox and state governors were able to work around.

Montiel: strongest PRI candidate?

2005-09-19T17:46:00.000-07:00

Arturo Montiel Rojas will be the next president of Mexico. All that is required for his victory is for the PRI to give him their party's nomination (over the Tabasqueno Roberto Madrazo).
On Tuesday, September 6, I attended Montiel's farewell "state of the state" address as outgoing governor of Estado de Mexico. The Teatro Morelos in Toluca was full of dark suited men (white shirts, red ties) and elegant women in designer attire. Montiel stood out, wearing a gray tie, perhaps a suggestion of his wife, the most elegant woman there, former European model Maude Versini.

Unlike previous state of the state addresses, there were very few campesinos with traditional sombreros. There were several former EdoMex Governors, plus Senators and Governors from other states. The biggest surprise was the foreign contingent. I sat next to the ambassadors from Germany, Angola and the Philippines.

There were no prep speakers, just giant screens showing videos with dramatic music showing six years of progress: more schools, more roads, more water treatment plants, more hospitals, and more jobs, jobs, jobs. Then Montiel ascended the podium and began to speak, flawlessly synchonized with what was being shown on the screens. At times, aids came up and left a note, and then, Montiel wove in an acknolwedgement of some dignitary whose presence had just been discovered (e.g., Rigoberta Manchu, the Guatemalan Feminist Noble Prize Winner).

Here is why Montiel will win (if nominated). The UNAM accountant grad is uncharismatic, but energetic, and (here is the big factor), Montiel does not make mistakes. His speech plodded along, at times in a quasi monotone, but he never fluffed a line nor got out of sync with the video.
A good example of this plodding, error free style, can be seen in the recent EdoMex governor election. The PRI candidate was Montiel's protegee and nephew, Enrique Pena Nieto (the most lackluster of the three candidates). Back in March, it was close to a three way statistical dead heat, but first the PRD candidate self-destructed, then the PAN candidate did the same, while the heavily financed, flawless campaign of Pena Nieto picked up votes left and right and ended up with about half of the total. Of all of the outgoing governor's accomplishments, Montiel drew the greatest applause when he mentioned keeping the EdoMex governorship in PRI hands.

The content of the speech was a fact based boast of six years of accomplishments. It is easy to compare Estado de Mexico to the other thirty states in the Republic and say "We're number one" over and over again. But, Montiel had a more clever reframing of progress. He compared his state to other nations in Latin America: more automobiles produced than in any other nation except Brazil (see pictures of the PT Cruiser being built), more housing starts in the last six years than in Argentina, Venezuela or Peru (see pictures of beautiful new homes going up in Metepec), and Toluca number one city in civil aviation in Latin America.

This sort of reminded me of deposed California Governor Gray Davis claiming that California was the sixth biggest economy in the world. Of course, it was more correct to say that the California economy had managed to survive five years of Gray Davis, rather than claim that California had a big economy because of Davis.

While it is true that Toluca and EdoMex became the center of Mexican prosperity before Montiel, and despite former PRIista governors, Montiel deserves his due. Remember, this is a man who does not make mistakes. He is not incompetent. He is not an ideologue (to put it in U.S. political terms, he is not a tax and spend liberal). He knows how to go to foreign political and business leaders and work out realistic deals for expanding production and markets. Montiel's claim of credit for EdoMex prosperity is much more credible than that of Bill Clinton's claim to U.S. economic expansion in the 1990s.

After the address, downtown Toluca was a traffic jam. I walked a few blocks to the Policlinica where I used to work and caught a taxi home. The taxista had heard the address on the radio, and responded "pura propaganda." He was right, but it was propaganda well done, the propaganda that wins elections.

Here's why Montiel would win next year's three way presidential race. Mexico City's PRDista mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will start out close to 40% in the polls, then he will polarize the voters into pro-AMLO and anti-AMLO. The anti-AMLO 60% will drift to the stronger candidate among the PAN and PRI. Montiel portrays himself as pro-business and tough on crime: I see imagine PANista leaning voters embracing Montiel in a stop AMLO movement.

I can imagine the debates, with Montiel pointing to AMLO and making this comparison "You empathize with the sufferings of 16 million people in DF, but have you stopped the crime or given them good jobs? Over the last six years, the 16 million people in EdoMex have seen their crime rates go down and good jobs increase."

Montiel is not a reformer, and many of the old PRIistas would get back in power, but I predict Mexican prosperity will survive Montiel, services will improve, and things will be relatively stable. I am not sure that any of these will occur if AMLO is elected.

Murders that don't make international news

2005-07-15T14:04:00.000-07:00

When a retired Acapulco politician is killed close to where the cliff divers perform, that makes the international news services, and you can read about it the next day in Cleveland or Tacoma. Most local murders don't get that kind of coverage because their victims were poor and the motives of the perpetrators were more base: domestic violence, robbery, gang rivalries.

There is a serial killer loose in Acapulco. He strangles prostitutes. Between the Costera and the
downtown market where tourists by souvenirs of leather, silver, and pottery, there are some
cheap hotels "de paso". Couples arrive without luggage. The rooms have no plumbing, but hopefully clean sheets, and are rented by the hour. At one of these, hotel Kika, the victim was a fourteen year old prostitute (or "sexo-servidora"as the new PC term would have it). Her name was Jazmin Gomez Lopez, but on the street she was "La Pelona" (Baldy). Several others have been attacked since, but she is the one who still sticks in my mind.

education in Edo Mex

2005-07-12T15:27:00.000-07:00

July has a couple of notable Sundaysin Toluca. The first is usually an electiondate: national or state or municipal, depending upon the year. People vote inabout the same numbers as they do in the U.S.but usually emotions do not run high or arethere many surprises when the results come in.
The second Sunday is the one that people await with anticipation and fear, for theresults are less predictable and much morerelevant to their lives. On this EducationSunday, the newspapers have a fifty pagesupplement, mostly consisting of code numbers.Each number represents an applicant to thestate's public high schools and university UAEM (Universidad Autonoma del Estado de Mexico).

The Jimenez Gonzaga family has two daughters,ages 14 and 17. Both are responsible and studious.The younger just graduated from public middle school(secundaria as it is called here), while theelder just finished public high school (preparatoria).Each girl had earned high grades, but had to payalmost 600 pesos each to take a special exam to get into the next level of public education. The youngerwants to go to the public high school that iscollege prep (right where her sister went and succeeded). The older one wants to go to UAEMand study accounting.

The Sunday newspaper contained good news and badnews for the Jimenez Gonzaga family. The youngerdaughter was accepted, and if they can come upwith another registration fee in ten days (andafford to pay for books and uniform) their daughtercan go to the public high school. The bad news wasthat the older daughter was not accepted into theschool of accounting at UAEM.
Across this state, UAEM accepted thirteen thousandstudents, all of whom had good high school grades,good test scores, and the luck of the final lotterytype selection. The programs drawing the greatestnumber of applications were medicine, law, gastronomy(food service management), psychology, dentistry, andarchitecture.

What happens to the seventeen thousand (57% of theapplicants) who were rejected? There are no communitycolleges to attend with hopes of transfering into UAEMas a sophomore or junior. The applicants could waitand try next year, with an even larger number ofrecent graduates. Another alternative presented itselfin the same newspapers: hundreds of ads for privateuniversities. The really good ones (Monterrey Techor Iberoamericana) don't have to advertise anymorethan M.I.T. or Stanford do. The places that do advertise have the reputation of a University ofPhoenix.
There is one more last hope. The newspaper mentionedthat there are still some slots open at UAEM, andif the applicant wants to pay another applicationfee August 8 and take another test August 14 (foryet another fee), she can complete for one of thosefew slots. There are no more accounting slots forthe big UAEM campus Toluca, so the Jimenez Gonzagafamily must choose if their daughter will apply fora slot in Tourism at the Toluca campus or for anaccounting slot at a branch campus inTemascaltepec, an hour and a half away, and thenfigure out how to pay room and board in additionto tuition, books, and of course, more fees.

The real tragedy is occurring on the high schoollevel. A third of the applicants to the publichigh schools in this state did not gain acceptance.Most working class families cannot afford to sendtheir children to the growing number of privatehigh schools. Thanks to child labor laws, you haveto be 18 to get a good job (such as on the assemblyline making PT Cruisers at the Daimler plant). So,what becomes of a 15 year old boy who doesn't makeit into high school? The lucky ones go back touncle Joe's farm, or work in a family business.The really unlucky one's get their pictures on thepoliciaca pages of the newspapers.

MEMIN PINGUIN: not a platform on which to take a stand on racism

2005-07-12T15:08:00.000-07:00

Imagine a 1950s type pre-adolescent boy, with red striped shirt, baseball cap (viser won in front) and old stylehigh top tennis shoes. He's sometimes naive, sometimes clever, always cute,and 100% boy. He is to Mexico what Dennis the Menace or Beaver Cleaverwas to the U.S. Now there is talk of making this retro comic strip figureinto a TV series or even a movie.
There's one complicating factor in this innocent nostalgia. Memin Pinguin is obviously of African Ancestry, and is portrayed stereotypically. Just last month, this beloved cartoon character was honored with a Mexican postage stamp.That was the spark (President Fox's comments about Mexicans doing work "even the Blacks won't do") was the accumulated dynamite leading to the explosion of rage from African American leaders who saw this as just another verification of Mexican racism.

The reaction among Mexicans is predictable:

1. "of all the things to get upset about"!

2. "you Gringos are the real racists"!

I agree with the Mexicans on the first point.What little I remember of Memin Pinguin is that this is pretty tame fare, and certainly nothing as overtly racist as the old radio program "Amos N Andy" or the 1970s TV program "Sanford and Son."

On the second point, I don't dare disagree with Mexicans south or north of the border. Just over this past year when I have had Spanish language mass in my Redlands home, some of the older attendees told me that when they were teenagers, the rule at the public swimming pool was segregated swimming. Mexican kids had to wait for their special day (the day before the pool was drained).

But there is another point which most Mexicans are not yet willing to address: the Mexican prejudice against blacks here in Mexico. After the Spanish conquest of the Aztec empire, over two hundred thousand African slaves were brought to Mexico, just as the Spanish, English, French, Dutch, Portuguese and Americans had done in other situations requiring tropical plantation agriculture. In Mexico, the African arrival was concentrated on the two coasts: around Veracruz in the gulf and around Acapulco's Costa Chica on the Pacific. Perhaps the best example of such a community is Cuajinicuilapa, Oaxaca, about four hours south of Acapulco. They have a museum worth a look: Museo de las Culturas Afromestizas.

Many of these Black Mexicans were among the first to fight in the independence movement of 1810 (and it is even rumored that some of the founding fathers of the Republic had some African ancestry). The new nation immediately abolished slavery, but then forgot about its third root of cultural heritage. Some of the black, isolated, rural and coastal villages in the states of Veracruz, Guerrero and Oaxaca were among the last to get electricity in the 1980s. Health care and educational facilities beyond primary grades are rare in these communities.If a student with African looks makes it to the university, the students and professors start off with the assumption of a foreign student from Africa or the Caribbean.

Here in Acapulco it is common to see persons of mixed African descent. You'll see them quite prominently as beach vendors, fishermen, sanitation and agricultural workers, somewhat less represented as hotel maid, and even less in high end retail establishments. They are so over-represented in stick shack "favela" squatter developments that these slums are often called "barrios negros."

It is against this background that we must viewMemin Pinguin. His looks may be stereotypical, but the behavioral stereotypes do not apply.In that sense, the revival of interest inMemin Pinguin may serve to bring about an acknowledgement of Mexicans of African descent,of their role as the "Tercer Raiz" of Mexican culture.

EdoMex election: a change of latitude

2005-07-07T09:43:00.000-07:00

Sometimes you change your point of view about something asyou get further away from it, in time or distance.

About 28 hours after the polls had closed in the governor's election I got on the bus from Toluca to Acapulco thinking it was a pretty honest election, one candidate was the clear winner, and at least things are stable in the big state. But my mind keeps coming back to the conviction that the two losing candidates were more qualified, and had better ideas.

Since my arrival in Acapulco at 4:30 AM Tuesday, I have been submersed in the local PRD culture. A cartoon in Wednesday's Diario17 showed it plainly. An electoral commission official sits and looks the other way while a handsome face sits atop a big money bag labeled "campaign spending." For Acapulquenos, the EdoMex election is the prime exampleof what is wrong with this country: the concentrated wealth and political power of the country's center.

There are three things that Acapulquenos cannot stomach:the PRI, Chilangos (people from Mexico City), and Toluquenos.Chilangos are held in the same regard here as New Yorkers are viewed in Vermont, or Californians in Oregon: loud, pseudo-sophisticates with too much money. It is different withToluquenos. They are perceived as humorless workaholics who want to bring order and punctuality where ever they go (and Acapulco only functions, if that is the word, in a chaotic and off-schedule mode).

Acapulquenos think that Chilangos and Toluquenos turn to money to solve any problem. So, what else could account for the defeat of Lopez Obrador's protegee, Yeidckol Polevnsky?The longer I'm here, the more I think like an Acapulqueno. Maybe what happened is that the EdoMex voters saw the disordered campaigns of Polevnsky and Mendoza and thought,"we can have none of this chaos" and so they stayed with the symbol of stability: Montiel's Atlacomulco dynasty.

Mexican jail or French jail?

2005-07-07T09:41:00.000-07:00

Ex-convict Raul Salinas Gortari, the brother of ex-President Carlos Salinas Gortari,was recently released from the big prison outside of Toluca(on charges of complicity in the assassination of his ex-brother-in-law,Enrique Ruiz Massieu here in Acapulco in 1994). A Mexican judge threw out his conviction for lack of evidence,but a French judge has concluded that Raul Salinas must stand trial next February in Paris,for ¨laundering¨ nearly four million dollars. His ex-wife Adriana will be a co-defendent.

Cardenas will not run in 2006

2005-07-07T09:30:00.000-07:00

Imagine a presidential candidate with the pedigree of John F. Kennedy, Jr. and the track record of William Jennings Bryan. Like JFKJr, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas Solorzano is the son of a beloved 20thcentury president (Lazaro Cardenas (who nationalized the oil companies). Like WJB, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas ran for the presidency three times (under the banners of a coalition of populist, reform, and leftist parties) only to lose three times.

Young Cardenas rose rapidly in the ranks of the PRI and served as governor of the western agricultural state of Michoacan in the 1970s (where he was best remembered for the abolition of prostitution). He made known his aspirations for the presidency, but was told that it was Miguel de la Madrid's turn in1982, so he patiently waited another six years. When de la Madrid then gave the finger of nomination (el dedazo) to his finance minister,Carlos Salinas Gortari, Cardenas refused to sit by quietly, but decided to run as a third party candidate.

Since that time Cardenas has been a major polarizing figure in Mexican politics. No one is neutral about CCS: either you love him or hate him. His admirers view his 1988 (and subsequent) campaigns as a selfless quest to reform the country, while his detractors have seen him as a tireless self-promoter who can't seem to take three "no's" for an answer.

In the 1988 election, Cardenas started with his own new party, PFCRN (Partido Frente Cardenista para laReconstruccion Nacional). He then worked a political miracle unifying the scattered parties of Mexico's left: PPS (Partido Popular Socialista), PSUM (Partido Socialista Unida de Mexico), and PARM (Partido Autenticade la Revolucion Mexicana). Only the old Trotskyites of Partido del Trabajo resisted his call (at that time).

To understand Mexico in 1988, you have to understand that it was still in a throes of an economic crisis,and the PRI candidate, Salinas Gortari, was seen as the architect of the economic policies which had been painful (and had not yet born fruit). The conservative PAN (National Action Party) had won some governorships in the north and had nominated a respected agribusinessman from Sinaloa, Manuel Clouthier.

Every Mexican I have ever spoken with since July of 1988 was convinced that Cardenas won (although I did read one article which speculated that maybe the real popular vote victor was Clouthier!). In any event, no one thought that Salinas got more than ten percent of the real vote, but after more than a week of falsifying the totals, the PRI-dominated electoral commission declared that Salinas had won the three way race with 50.1%.

To his credit, Cardenas did not call for a revolt. He decided to pull his supporters into a new party, PRD PartidoRevolucionario Democratico. Some local chapters, like the one in Acapulco, attracted broad support from academics, business, labor, and old PRI reformers, and started to win seats in the congress and mayorships.

In 1994 Cardenas was ready to try again, but initially this appeared inappropriate, for the PRI had chosen a youthful reformer, Donaldo Colosio. Also, the economy was on an upswing: it looked as though Salinas' bad tasting medicine had worked. Then, Colosio was assassinated and thePRI went for a replacement candidate completely out of character, the introverted but competent Ernesto Zedillo.To everyone's surprise, he agree to debate Cardenas andthe PAN candidate, Diego Ceballos. Not accustomed to formal debates, Cardenas performed poorly. Ceballos shined in the first, focusing his brash attacks onCardenas. In the next debate Zedillo's soft spoken confidence lifted him about the rhetorical duel of the other two. On election day,Cardenas came in a distant third. Despite some local frauds, I think that the positions of the candidates would not be changed by a more thorough and honest count.

In 1997 Cardenas decided to run for governor of DF, the federal district (equivalent the mayor of Mexico City). Since he had carried DF in both of the presidential elections,it was a safe bet. For the next three years, he used that office as a platform to posture, and blame the PRI for
not letting him succeed.

The 2000 presidential race had new candidates for the PRI (Labastida) and PAN (Coca Cola president turned Guanajuato governor, Vicente Fox). The presidential debates had a pattern similar to those of six years before. Tracking polls revealed that Cardenas started off in last place, and lost ground as the campaign went on. Voters who wanted real change, left Cardenas and headed for the rising Fox. Voters who wanted to prevent a PAN victory, left Cardenas and voted for Labastida.

Over the last few years, another PRDista with presidential aspirations has followed Cardenas' path, moving from Tabasco to Mexico City to occupy that springboard position. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador AMLO now seems the favorite to win not onlythe PRD nomination, but the presidency. Last March, when it appeared that AMLO would be disqualified from running (on some rather questionable charges), Cardenas let it be known that he could be persuaded to run a fourth time. That idea sold as enthusiastically as a three day old fish in Acapulco's municipal market. Now it appears that AMLO will not be disqualified, so Cardenas has decided to make the retirement announcement.

Cardenas says that he will now devote his time to building a great coalition to work on progressive causes: "Un Mexico Para Todos." He got off a few parting shots, criticizing his party for its structural weakness,absense of debate about priorities,recent ideological detours and the propensity to seek alliances (most recently with Partido del Trabajo). I'm sure his admirers will continue to see him as the guiding beacon of the left, while his detractors will read into his latest words a mixture of bitterness and self-justification.

Leaving the stage, we have the most colorful figure inMexican politics since ... his father.

Another day, another assassination

2005-07-06T15:04:00.000-07:00

As I was returning from my morning walk along the Pie de la Cuesta Beach, a funeral procession tied up the traffic on the highway at KM 10 west of Acapulco. Another death, but life goes on in aradise, I thought to myself.

Two hours later I was in the center of the city, more specifically in PAN headquarters, right across crom Parque Papagayo. I was waiting to interview the local leader, when the TV news came on about the assassination of N.P. Jose Ruben Robles Catalan. As he arrived for breakfast at the Hotel Mirador, not far from where the cliff divers perform, gunmen in three cars started firing. Over two dozen shots pierced the windows of the car. The driver was killed, but Robles Catalan and an 8 year old grandson got out of the car and fled to the lobby of the hotel where other bullets hit and killed him (but fortunately missed the boy). News coverage has been continuous, and there is speculation as to the motive.

Robles was a Notario Publico, and in Mexico that office gives many of the services which require an attorney-at-law in the U.S. In the early 1990s Robles was a minister in the state government. He had a hand in several government crackdowns on rural dissidents. After leaving office, Robles and the governor faced a criminal trial, but were cleared of any criminal wrongdoing. That dissident movement has become transformed into a guerrilla uprising, which every once in awhile attacks the army or police. They are probably more active than the Chiapas Zapatistas, but lack someone as media savvy as Subcomandate Marcos. Could this be the settling of an old score? No doubt, some guerilla group will take credit for this murder.

Whenever anything like this occurs here, the first lament is usually Los Narcotraficantes. Reformers who try to clean up government run afoul of the Drug Cartels. Most people just want to stay out of their way, but end up knowning too much. Lawyers, accountants and notaries public may get to know too much. The family members I have communicated with are convinced that Robles Catalan was done in by narcotraficantes because they feared him.

The busses kept running. The fishermen still sold their bundles of red fish. The lady in the stall selling toys switched her TV away from the news coverage back to her favorite novela (soap opera).

Another two deaths, then life goes on in paradise. But, it would go on better and longer without the Narcotraficantes and the Guerrilleros.

Edo Mex governor: a post mortem on the election

2005-07-04T10:35:00.000-07:00

Did this state election just sweep away most of the predictions and assumptions about the 2006 Presidential race, by weakening the supposed power of those who were either front runners or kingmakers prior to July 3? Let´s speculate how each party is affected.

Did the PRI victory show that a party completely focused on one thing (winning) and not getting side tracked on ideology or personality is well on its way to doing the same thing on a national level next year? The PRI party head, Roberto Madrazo from Tabasco, is now going to be compared with PRI party bosses in Toluca (e.g, former governor Emilio Chuayffet and outgoing governor Arturo Montiel) who orchestrated Sunday's victory.

The PRD front runner, Andres Manuel Lopez Obredor, demonstrated that his short coat tails don't extend outside the city limits of the Mexico City. He campaigned heavily for the PRD candidate, Yeidckol Palevnsky, and she came in last, even though the largest cities in Mexico State are suburbs of Mexico City.

As for the PAN, its great titular head is still "lame duck" President Vicente Fox insisted on having a celebration of the fifth year anniversary of his presidential victory. He held that rally on Saturday night, just hours before the polls opened just beyond the city limits. There were many busloads coming in from the suburbs that are outside the federal district boundary, and therefore in Mexico State. All this couldn't lift the PAN candidate to victory.

Bottom line: PRI came out of this EdoMex election looking like a classic, effective, political machine. PAN and PRD candidates may have excellent qualifications and great issues, but they can´t win if their campaigns self-destruct over distractions.

EDo Mex governor: results seem valid

2005-07-04T10:19:00.000-07:00

Election returns came in speedily last night from the largest and most diverse state of the Republic's 30 odd states, Estado de Mexico.

THE WINNER: Enrique Pena Nieto, of the PRI & PVEM, with almost half of the vote.

Both of the other candidates were far behind, getting about quarter each.

I was one of the first on site observers to call the 1988 presidential election a fraud, but I think that these 2005 EdoMex totals are valid in the aggregate and do not represent appreciable tampering. Here are my reasons.

1. On Monday July 4, the day after the election, each polling station (like a precinct) posted a handwritten total for that station (SEE IMAGE ABOVE). A tour of several around the state capital, in different neighborhoods all show the dramatic trend of the PRI candidate getting a clear majority of the votes. These hand drawn papers, the size of a flip chart sheet, are signed by observers from each of the three major parties.

2. The statewide totals were quickly published by the media. We woke up to see the numbers in the newspapers and hear about it on the radio. Back in 1988 it took the PRI over a week to tweak the numbers to give Carlos Salinas Gortari a phony victory.

3. The results are consistent with the magnitude and trends of tracking polls. Back in early March, the first polls showed a close three way race. Two weeks ago, it was clear that the PAN Mendoza had gained no traction despite his focus on hot button issues, and that PRD Yeidckol´s campaign had self-destructed. The PRI was picking up Yeidckol´s deserters and growing. In the past two weeks, the only big move seemed to be that the PAN Mendoza campaign self-destructed with more rumors about his drunkeness and riotous behavior at campaign rallies.

4. Very early Monday morning, Mendoza called Pena Nieto to give a gracious concession.

At this point, the only one who seems to doubt the validity of the results in Yeidckol Polevnsky, saying she will mount an official challenge to the results.

My advice: give it up, Ms. Polevnsky! In all the local precinct totals I saw this morning in Toluca, she came in dead last. Even in the city´s poorest neighborhoods on the southwest side (and they are not really that poor) she was getting only 10-20%. Even assuming she did much better in the PRD strongholds of Mexico City´s outlying slums like Nezahualcoyotl, there´s no way she could beat the PRI strength in the rural areas.

fears of voter intimidation failed to emerge

2005-07-04T10:09:00.000-07:00

It all started with a cryptic two words painted on walls of Toluca neighborhoods: policia municipal. That was the entire message on that wall. It was obviously part of the governor election campaign. The colors, simple blue letters on white background, are trademark of the PAN. It just so happens that the PAN has lad the last two mayor´s of this prosperous industrial state capital. The PAN is tough on crime. Perhaps the intended meaning of the message was something like ¨We local police like the PAN stand on crime and hope that you support the PAN candidate for governor.

The rumors that then spread on the street is that the PAN wanted to steal the election and would do so by sending plain clothes policemen to every polling station, observing how people were voting, and threatening harm to the families of those who voted for the PRI. (There are apocryphal stories about this type of thing happening years ago, when it was the PRI in power and in control of the police.)

The poll workers seemed to be on the lookout for such threats. There were handmade signs saying "Your vote is private." When I walked into the police place two doors down from my house, and started taking pictures, one of the workers (who was not a neighbor, and therefore did not know me) challenged me, asking which party I was working for. When I explained that I was writing for this blog, he said there was no problem.

No one has reported any real instances of intimidation.

I think this who rumor may have been one of the factors (but not the major one) behind the PRI´s landslide victory. Voters now believe that elections are honest enough for them to stand up against presumed threats of intimidation. Mexican´s trust the system and expect that it will be honest. Just a decade ago, the attitude was submissive to the institutional power of the PRI, now no one can be allowed to intimidate them, not the PRI nor the PAN.

Real democracy has arrived.

Election Day: on the ground in Toluca

2005-07-04T10:07:00.000-07:00

Turnout seemed heavy, and the voters came in a steady stream from early morning. The usual heavy afternoon rains did not fall in Toluca until after the polls had closed. The media have reported a lighter than expected turnout in other parts of the state.

About a thousand basic, no frills polling stations stretched around the state. The ones I checked seemed to be adequately staffed. A fifty page newspaper supplement told each voter to look on his voter card for the four digit section number, and was then given the street address of where he was eligible to vote.

This Mexican voter card (credencial de elector) is as big as a credit card, and has the voter's signature, fingerprint, and photograph. It has become a national ID card, and is required for opening a bank account or registering your children for school.)

Poll station workers had large books with photocopies of the cards of all the people who had been assigned at that location. If someone showed up at the wrong location, or if the person did not look like the picture, she could not vote. This anti-fraud procedures are a great leap over the ballot box stuffing of the past (and more advanced than anything in the U.S.) Of course, what happens to the votes after they are collected and before the totals are announced remains the weakest link in this process.

Edo Mex governor candidate: Yeidckol Polevnsky

2005-07-04T10:04:00.000-07:00

Yeidckol Polevnsky, PRD and PT. She has a master's degree in industrial psychology, and has been CEO of a chemical company, and member of many commissions on trade and globalization. She campaigned very closely with Mexico City's popular mayor (and presumed front-runner for the PRD presidential nomination) Andres Manuel Lopez Obredor.

What the man in the street thinks about her is "Why did she change her name? How come she has three birth certificates? Why didn't she admit earlier that she is the niece of a former president?" The candidate then came up with explanations about a parental divorce and an adolescent pregnancy (which sounded quite plausible), but it was a major distraction away from key issues and qualifications.

She ran on the slogan "Someone like you" which apparently failed to connect with the rank and file, because they don't have her education, wealth, or connections. Many of her recent press communiques failed to turn around her slide in the polls. Some campaign aids claimed that UFOs had been buzzing her campaign rallies. From my perspective, this was a stellar candidate with potentially great issues, but the campaign has been completely mismanaged.

Edo de Mexico governor candidates: Ruben Mendoza

2005-07-04T10:00:00.000-07:00

Ruben Mendoza, PAN & Convergencia, mayor of a Mexico City suburb. This guy is no lightweight, having earned a master's degree in political science from Cambridge. He has a solid record of municipal accomplishments. His slogal is "el cumplidor" ("the guy who gets things done"), but the people in the street called him "el feo" (sort of the opposite on the physical attractiveness index from "el guapo").

He raised several key issues, such as keeping drugs out of schools (thereby capitalizing on recent press coverage in Toluca and around the state). However, when I mentioned Mendoza, the people in the street talked about rumors that he is a drunk, and even shows up at campaign rallies intoxicated and exhibits an excessively belligerant tone. One of his worst moments caught on film is when he led a mob looting the PRI opposition´s cache of toys. On the eve of the election, he reported left the Toluca airport for a little R&R in Cancun.

EdoMex governor candidates: Enrique Pena Nieto

2005-06-29T15:52:00.000-07:00

Enrique Pena Nieto, PRI & PVEM. Although he earned a master's in public administration from one of the country's finest universities (ITESM, "Monterry Tech"), most people I talked to in the street thought that he got the nomination simply because he was the nephew of old, outgoing governor (and PRI power broker) Arturo Montiel. The popular nickname for this candidate was "el guapo" (which literally translates as the handsome one, but a better rendition capturing the tone would be "prettyboy"). Pena claims to be 38, but his campaign photos look like a high school yearbook. Most stay completely away from the issues, but one encourages youth to think optimistically, ¨You too can have future employment¨and then you see five casually dressed young men. (You have to know that Pena is the one in the middle.)

The campaign was pure PRI classic playbook: stay away from the background of the candidate, stay away from the issues, just get the people to the rallies and the polls. For three months the biggest add campaign in Toluca was getting everyone to join the PRI, getting your own photo ID card and registering to participate in a raffle for television sets and washing machines. It worked: the lines outside of party headquarters have been long.

That sounds like a simplistic strategy, but it is working.

Welcome to Mexico Politics / Bienvenidos

2005-06-29T15:38:00.000-07:00

This is the place where we report, speculate, and advocate (in English or Spanish) about what is going on politically in the Republic, the states, and municipalities.