Sunday, June 25, 2006

AMLO exudes confidence


AMLO appears confident. Consider these factors.

1. He is no longer worried about answering charges or in cutting deals with Madrazo or Mercado or Campa.

2. His advertisements have gotten back to the bland one note themes of the beginning of the campaign.

3. He is no longer answering charges.

4. His attacks on Calderon this week are minimal.

5. His campaign is in familar territory which already backs him (like the big rally here in Acapulco Papagayo Park yesterday).

6. His posters emphasize the cartoon character of himself saying: Smile, we are going to win.

7. The ads for many senate and congressional candidates appear with him, presuming a coat tail effect.

On the other hand, the ads from Calderon seem to be calculating that his best chance is to get uncommitted voters wary of AMLO to get them on his side instead of that of Madrazo.

Although both AMLO and Calderon probably have access to better polling data than do I, I shall stick with my prediction: Calderon wins a very close contest next Sunday.

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