Monday, July 04, 2005

Edo Mex governor: a post mortem on the election

Did this state election just sweep away most of the predictions and assumptions about the 2006 Presidential race, by weakening the supposed power of those who were either front runners or kingmakers prior to July 3? Let´s speculate how each party is affected.

Did the PRI victory show that a party completely focused on one thing (winning) and not getting side tracked on ideology or personality is well on its way to doing the same thing on a national level next year? The PRI party head, Roberto Madrazo from Tabasco, is now going to be compared with PRI party bosses in Toluca (e.g, former governor Emilio Chuayffet and outgoing governor Arturo Montiel) who orchestrated Sunday's victory.

The PRD front runner, Andres Manuel Lopez Obredor, demonstrated that his short coat tails don't extend outside the city limits of the Mexico City. He campaigned heavily for the PRD candidate, Yeidckol Palevnsky, and she came in last, even though the largest cities in Mexico State are suburbs of Mexico City.

As for the PAN, its great titular head is still "lame duck" President Vicente Fox insisted on having a celebration of the fifth year anniversary of his presidential victory. He held that rally on Saturday night, just hours before the polls opened just beyond the city limits. There were many busloads coming in from the suburbs that are outside the federal district boundary, and therefore in Mexico State. All this couldn't lift the PAN candidate to victory.

Bottom line: PRI came out of this EdoMex election looking like a classic, effective, political machine. PAN and PRD candidates may have excellent qualifications and great issues, but they can´t win if their campaigns self-destruct over distractions.

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