Saturday, July 01, 2006

an election eve prediction

I called the race for Calderon after the first debate, and I am sticking with that prediction. More recent polls have been inconclusive or shown AMLO with a slight lead. However, my favorite pollster, Roy Campo of Mitofsky suggests that the results of the elections might still hold a big surprise.

One of his main points is that up to a tenth of the voters may make a last minute decision whether to vote or for whom to vote.

I foresee a large turnout and a narrow Calderon victory. Here are the dynamics

1. many undecideds and minor party supporters will switch to Calderon

2. many religiously oriented voters, though poor and in sync with AMLOs economic plans, will switch to Calderon.

Tomorrow, I shall spend the entire day observing a casilla (voting precinct) from set up to take down, and report on the process.

I think that there will be no definitive results until Tuesday at least.


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