Thursday, July 06, 2006

breadth & depth of PRI defeat

On Monday I looked at three Toluca precincts to illustrate how badly the PRI fared in Sunday's election. A more comprehensive geographical and historical analysis reveals that point with even greater clarity.

Just nine years ago, the PRI held not only the presidency of the Republic, but 238 congressional seats, and in the session elected Sunday, it will be down to 113. Even in the last Congress, the PRI had more seats than any other party, but now it will be in third place.

If we look at those few governorships up for grabs, the PRI lost them all: Jalisco (Guadalajara), Guanajuato, Morelos (Cuernavaca), and DF (Mexico City).

But it is in the Presidential race that the PRI loss is most evident. Madrazo lost in every single state, even in those 17 that currently have a PRI governor. Indeed, in the majority of states, Madrazo was behind both AMLO and Calderon. Even in his home state of Tabasco, where he had served as its governor, he lost to AMLO 56.11% to 37.73%. Alas, that was his best showing anywhere.

Mexico State is most illustrative here. Just last year, the PRI candidate, Enrique Pena Nieto, garnered a clear majority of the votes, but Madrazo came in last place with less than a fifth.
To his credit, Madrazo was not a bad looser. He called the election procedures perfectly legal and he did not attempt to deflect the blame for his defeat on anyone else.

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