Monday, July 03, 2006

an analysis of voting patterns: Madrazo was a drag

Looking at the results (pictured below) for three precincts in Toluca, one interesing pattern is clear. Just one year ago, in the July 2005 gubernatorial election in EdoMex, the PRI candidate, Enrique Pena Nieto, received a clear majority of the vote. Now, less than a quarter of the vote went for PRI senate and deputy candidates. From these data we should infer that last year´s PRI party loyalty among the electoral was broad, but shallow, and certainly not enduring.

Looking deeper at the data, notice that in the three precincts, Madrazo´s presidential totals were consistently less than those for the PRI at the Senate and Deputy levels. Some voters were saying yes to the PRI in the national Congress, but no to Madrazo as president. My informal discussions revealed two possible motives at work here.

1. some voters still regarded themselves as PRIistas, but were disappointed that Montiel was not the nominee, and this translated into anger at Madrazo.

2. some voters thought it was more important to stop AMLO than to give Madrazo a few more votes in an obviously losing bid.

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