Friday, July 07, 2006

conspiracy theory

I stumbled across another blog,

This is an interesting conspiracy theory, with much more speculative theory than hard evidence of conspiracy. It sounds similar to that voiced by some of AMLOs followers: the PAN and IFE ¨manipulated¨ the count to give Calderon a victory.

At the micro level, I observed the voting and counting of the votes in three precincts, and detected no fraud.

At the macro level, I notice a great consistency between the exit polls of many different organizations, the PREP, and the current counts: all show a slight lead for Calderon. As a social scientist specializing in questionnaires ( ) I think that attributing all of these consistencies between these separate polls and the IFE totals is more than a reasonable stretch.

Let´s admit that Calderon got more votes on Sunday.

If you want to say that the balloting was not valid because slick media duped the average voter into being afraid to vote for his own best interests (e.g., AMLO), that is another story, but don´t try to invent vote totals that don´t exist.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

AMLO's ego is so huge, Mexico can't handle this person. I believe there is no conspiracy, except may be miscommunication on part of IFE beause they don't have to reveal every detail during initial counting process. I also belive that there is no scope for fraud in Mexican system and is more trasnparent than many countries in the world. I am proud the way Mexico and its people have handled the entire process. AMLO's ego will destroy PRD party becasue his protests re-confirm people's worst fears about PRD and AMLO.

2:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thank you for linking my blog.

Let me now discuss your comment. Admittedly, my so-called "conspiracy theory" is more speculative than factual. From a distance, my evidence is the results supplied by the IFE and the complaints coming from the PRD. I don't have any independence or inside information. All I'm saying is that, in a very tight race, "small" manipulations of the vote at the local level can make the difference. Knowing what I know about the PAN in El Bajío, I can't give them the benefit of the doubt.

And I have to say that the argument that you provide in support of the idea that Calderón won is not very strong. At the macro level, the PREP and the sums of polling-place tallies district by district may have been consistent (in both of them, Calderón leads), but that doesn't make either of them right. The black box is still the relation between the polling-place tallies and the actual ballots in the packages. According to El Universal, in the cases where the packages were opened (some regions in Puebla), the ballots for López Obrador were consistently more (or the ballots for Calderón were consistently less) than the tallies recorded. And how consistent are the results above when one of them gives Calderón twice the advantage (in percent terms) than the other?

Second, at the micro level, you observed voting and counting in three precincts and saw nothing irregular. Three! And on the basis of that sample, you're ready to jump to your conclusion? Well, forgive me, but Mexico has a recent history of electoral fraud and I'm not ready to jump to that conclusion so quickly. Neither is the New York Times, which just called to a full recount in an editorial. As they say in Mexico, with such a history -- and an official razor thin difference -- the point is not only "vencer" but above all "convencer."

Let me now say one quick thing about the comment you got on your blog. There's this tendency to blame López Obrador -- or his ego -- for this mess. But that's shooting the messenger. The problem of people distrusting the outcome in an election, their -- if you wish -- "skepticism" or even "cynicism" about politics is widespread and not unwarranted, given Mexico's past. The good thing about López Obrador is that he is conducting his opposition to these results within the bounds of law. His right to appeal is within the law. And his right and the right of his supporters to protest and demonstrate is also protected by the Mexican constitution. He's not calling people to raise up in arms and overthrow the established political system. Finally, who, who doesn't have an ego, gets into politics? And don't the politicians from the PAN and other parties have egos too? If having a big ego disqualified people from getting into politics, then politics would have no takers.

Good luck with your blog!

9:29 PM  

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